633 FXUS62 KFFC 100256 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 956 PM EST Thu Jan 9 2020 .UPDATE... Just minor tweaks made to the short term forecast as cloud cover has been keeping temperatures up this evening. This trend will likely continue into the overnight hours with chances for showers beginning to increasing mainly on Friday morning. Reaves && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 657 PM EST Thu Jan 9 2020/ UPDATE... Updated for 00Z aviation discussion. PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 246 PM EST Thu Jan 9 2020/ SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/... Current satellite loop shows increasing high clouds over the region as next frontal system develops over the MS river valley. Upper- level flow has transitioned to southwesterly as upper ridge develops just off the Southern FL Atlantic coast. The surface ridge has moved NE of the area and is currently centered along the Mid Atlantic coast. This ridge will move off shore over night allowing the developing frontal boundary to move east Friday and push into west GA Saturday. Precip chances slowly ramp up beginning tonight as southwesterly flow brings deeper moisture in from the gulf ahead of the main frontal boundary. Precip chances will go from 20 to 30 percent Friday morning to 80 to 90 percent by Sat morning. Instability is still to low in the short term period for severe storms but things change rapidly into the beginning of the extended periods. Low temps tonight will be in the 40s and 50s across the state with high Friday in the 60s to lower 70s. Low temps Sat morning stay fairly warm with lows in the 50s and 60s. 01 LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/... Long term forecast period will continue to be wet. The long term models continue in good agreement through the period. The upper level trough/surface low will lift from the ARKLATEX into the Great Lakes region by Saturday night. The associated cold front is expected to move through the area beginning Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. The potential remains for strong to severe storms on Saturday and Saturday night with a low CAPE environment across the area. Models continue to show good shear during the afternoon and evening timeframe. The main hazards will be strong damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes. After a brief respite Sunday morning across much of north Georgia, the front will lift back to the north and stall under deep southwest flow. PWATs will be in the 1.5-2 inch range through Tuesday/Wednesday when the upper flow becomes more zonal and the front washes out. Heavy rainfall will also be possible at times through the middle of the week, with most likely timeframe for the heaviest precipitation on Saturday afternoon and evening. Guidance temperatures continue to show above normal with highs in the mid 60s to upper 70s across the area and overnight lows in the 50s and 60s for the most part. Atwell AVIATION... 00Z Update... Currently have VFR cigs across the area, but expecting MVFR cigs to move into the ATL metro TAF sites by 04z-06z (at MCN/CSG around 07-09Z with isold/sct -SHRA moving in around 14z-17z at all sites. There is some potential for IFR cigs to develop in the same time frame. Some vsby reductions are expected with -SHRA as well. Winds are expected to be E to SE in the 05-12kt range through the period. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... Medium to high on all elements. Low on IFR cig potential. Reaves && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 48 62 57 72 / 30 40 80 80 Atlanta 51 63 59 71 / 20 50 80 100 Blairsville 44 57 53 66 / 40 60 90 100 Cartersville 49 64 58 71 / 20 40 90 100 Columbus 54 71 62 76 / 20 40 80 100 Gainesville 46 57 55 69 / 30 50 90 90 Macon 52 71 61 77 / 20 30 60 60 Rome 50 65 58 72 / 10 40 90 100 Peachtree City 51 66 59 72 / 20 50 80 100 Vidalia 54 73 63 80 / 20 30 40 50 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....Atwell AVIATION...Reaves