118 FXUS61 KCLE 100012 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 712 PM EST Thu Jan 9 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will arrive into the area this evening as the low reaches the Upper Great Lakes region. A stronger low will develop Friday in the Southern Plains and will move northeast along a frontal boundary into the Ohio Valley by Friday night into Saturday. High pressure will move in Sunday night into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Our near-term forecast remains on track. A few rain showers are possible through late evening in response to a return flow of very moist air from the Gulf of Mexico undergoing isentropic lift ahead of a cold front moving eastward through the Upper Great Lakes region. The return flow is southerly at the surface and quickly veering to southwesterly with height through the rest of the troposphere. As this return flow moistens the atmospheric column and continues to undergo isentropic lift, much more widespread rain is still expected to overspread our region generally from southwest to northeast late this evening through the predawn hours of Friday morning. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...An area of low pressure is currently moving through the Upper Great Lakes this afternoon causing southerly winds to increase across the area because of the pressure gradient. Southwest flow in the mid and upper levels continue to increase and strengthen over the region bringing in an atmospheric river of moisture and warm air deep from the tropics. There is front that will drop down into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region tonight but will stall out north of our area. Clouds will thicken tonight and light rain will become increasing more widespread by early Friday morning. Temperatures may initially drop a little bit this evening from where they are now then hold steady or very slowly rise late tonight into early tomorrow morning with warm air advection. We will see our first round of rainfall during much of the day Friday with breezy conditions. Southerly winds and warm air advection will help boost temperatures into the lower and middle 50s. We are not expecting hydro impacts from the first round of rainfall Friday. The area of widespread rainfall will slowly lift northward with a break in the rain across our eastern counties Friday night. The main area to see rain Friday night will be closer to the stalled front across northwestern Ohio. The axis of moderate or heavy rainfall Friday night will be into early Saturday morning will be across northwest Ohio. Temperatures will either hold steady for much of Friday night with warm air advection continuing. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The short term begins Saturday morning with models showing a cold front sagging sse towards the area. This front will likely hang up along the lakeshore but may drop into or through the TOL area during the day. Either way there will be a sharp temperature gradient with possible record breaking warmth across the southeastern counties and temps in the upper 30s and lower 40s north of the boundary. For the day, models show deepening low pressure moving north from AR to northern Indiana by evening. Heaviest rainfall should remain focused invof and north of the front with the heaviest rainfall during the day falling likely across northwest Ohio with around 2 inches expected. The front will lift north of the area Saturday evening as the deep low tracks north from Indiana into MI. A cold front will follow from the west Saturday evening/night. The main concern aside from flood potential will be the threat for convection with and ahead of the front. Will have thunder mentioned both Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. With a strongly sheared environment coupled with the instability along and ahead of the front some storms could be strong. Behind the cold front winds will become strong for about a 6 hour window. Winds between 1500 and 3500 feet will reach 50 to 70 knots. As the front moves through and temps drop the modestly stable low level temp profile will become unstable as temps aloft drop allowing some of this momentum to mix down to the surface. Would expect 25 to 35 mph winds for the most part from the western counties east/northeast including counties along the lakeshore. Gusts could reach around 50 mph. Winds will drop off quickly Sunday late morning and afternoon as the deep low moves into Ontario and high pressure builds in from the west. Monday will continue dry as low pressure and limited moisture track ene across the lower Great Lakes. Expect highs Saturday from the mid 40s northwest to the mid and upper 60s elsewhere. Sunday should range from the mid 30s northwest to mid and upper 40s east and southeast. Monday highs in the mid 40s. Pops will be categorical Saturday into Saturday evening dropping into the chance category west after midnight. Sunday and Monday mostly dry. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Tuesday begins with models showing dry air across the region. During the afternoon however, the GFS and ECMWF take low pressure east across the central Great Lakes. There are differences in the handling of the moisture with the ECMWF drier and further east with the moisture while the GFS has it closer to our northern counties. For now will have a low chance pop for the afternoon north. Wednesday another low will move through the central lakes dragging a cold front through the region. Expecting showers Wednesday to change to snow showers Wednesday night and Thursday with and behind the boundary. Did increase pops to likely Thursday afternoon across the snowbelt for lake potential lake enhancement. Currently however models differ significantly with the GFS dropping 850mb temps to around -20C while the ECMWF is much more reasonable at -8 to -10C so confidence is low. Highs in the 40s Tuesday and Wednesday dropping into the 30s on Thursday. && .AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/... Southerly surface winds quickly veering and strengthening with height through the low-level to upper-level atmosphere will persist through the TAF period. At the surface, winds will trend 10 to 20 knots. However, stronger southerly surface winds of about 20G30 knots are expected at/near KERI through about 09Z/Fri. Given much stronger winds just aloft, low-level wind shear will likely be a concern through the TAF period. The southwesterly flow aloft over our region will continue to rise gradually and transport abundant amounts of Gulf of Mexico moisture into our area. Accordingly, VFR ceilings will continue to lower and a few rain showers remain possible through this evening. MFVR ceilings and widespread light to moderate rain should develop northeastward between about 04Z and 10Z/Fri, with IFR ceilings expected to develop northeastward between roughly 12Z and 17Z/Fri. VFR to MVFR visibility is expected in this widespread rain. .OUTLOOK...Widespread non-VFR likely in rain through early Sunday morning, while periods of non-VFR are possible in scattered rain and/or snow showers later Sunday morning. Non-VFR possible in scattered rain showers Tuesday afternoon. && .MARINE... Will leave current headline as is with winds forecast to come up to around 20 knots for the first half of the overnight on the nearshore waters as a warm front lifts northeast across the lake. Rain will overspread the lake from the west from late evening on ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. Rain, heavy at times will continue on the lake through The front will slow and not drop onto the lake until Saturday. Saturday evening the front will drop south of the lake turning winds out of the northeast at 10 to 20 knots. Would expect continuing moderate to heavy rain with possible lower visibilities in fog over the lake on the north side of the front. Late Saturday night, deepening low pressure will move north through Indiana into lower Mi lifting the front back north across the lake as a warm front. Southwest flow will begin to increase quickly reaching gale force by Sunday morning west half. Gales will expand east across the lake during the morning as a cold front sweeps the lake from the west. By afternoon, winds will drop quickly as the low reaches southeast Ontario and high pressure begins to build in from the west. No headlines expected Monday or Tuesday with generally light winds across the lake. && .CLIMATE... Temperatures are expected to warm significantly with a few locations likely approaching record levels. Here are the record high temperatures for Jan 11: Canton/Akron 63 in 1890** Cleveland 67 in 1890 Erie, PA 66 in 1890 Mansfield 58 in 2018 & 2013** Toledo 68 in 1890 Youngstown 62 in 2018** **indicates location where forecast high is at or above the record. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Flood Watch from Friday evening through Saturday evening for OHZ003-006>009-017>019-027-028-036. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for LEZ144>148. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for LEZ149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Griffin NEAR TERM...Griffin/Jaszka SHORT TERM...TK LONG TERM...TK AVIATION...Jaszka MARINE...TK CLIMATE...Griffin