359 FXUS65 KREV 092106 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 106 PM PST Thu Jan 9 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A train of weak to moderate winter storms will affect the area into next week, each with snow and wind impacts. The main risk periods are Friday night into Saturday, Sunday night, and Monday night into Tuesday. A stronger and more impactful winter storm remains possible next Thursday with heavier snow totals and high winds. Temperatures overall will be near to just below seasonal normals. && .DISCUSSION... * Significant Changes: Increased wind gusts Fri night into Sat morning especially Tahoe, Washoe Valley, and Mono County. No major changes to QPF/snow for incoming storms, just some minor timing adjustments. * Snow showers gradually winding down this afternoon as upper wave passes to the southeast. Earlier "slider-like" band of snow brought quick light accumulations to W Nevada cities and I-80 corridor. That's heading south into the Carson Valley and Yerington areas now. Flow aloft turns more northerly tonight with moderate gusts persisting along Sierra crest including Mammoth Mountain. Friday is a quiet day with shortwave (very shortwave) ridging overhead. Likely a day with sketchy mixing and poor ventilation in valleys including W Nevada and Tahoe - this could impact prescribed burn plans. * Next wave pushes through Friday night into Saturday. Snow showers are likely with this system but mainly in the favored upslope mountain areas with unremarkable amounts. Main story with this quick moving storm is wind. There's more SW wind energy aloft here than recent storms. Sierra ridges will start ramping up Friday evening with turbulence and wind shear issues for regional aviation interests. For valley areas, this has a very similar look to last Saturday morning's high winds in Washoe Valley and Mono County along Hwy 395. That's what the ECMWF high-res gusts are showing and it seems reasonable given the pattern. MMH airport peaking out 50kt gusts Sat 12z in that simulation. Rough water on Tahoe also a good bet Saturday, especially in the morning presuming momentum can mix down enough. * Into next week ensemble simulations continue to show winter storm potential for us Monday-Tuesday and again Thursday. We're on the south periphery of a anomalous cold trough over the Pacific Northwest with waves moving through the Sierra. Confidence is decent that we'll see storms next week but the character remains a bit in flux with potential for more mixed precip types and/or shadowing in the lower valleys. Strongest of the pair continues to be Thursday. Some recent runs from the ECMWF yield intense snow rates. But it's not time for red alert yet as there's admittedly more scenario variability in EPS guidance versus the more consistent Monday-Tuesday storm. * Leading scenario based on blend from ECMWF and ICON has snow moving into the Sierra Monday night with strong winds for W Nevada into Tues AM. A period of snow looks probable for W Nevada Tues AM associated with the cold front. A break in the action Wednesday with heavy snows and strong lee-side winds back into the region Wednesday night and Thursday. Models have a rather robust spillover of snow into W Nevada cities next Thursday morning. For both storms the forecast 700mb flow does suggest potential for enhanced wind impacts across the region for road and air travel. -Chris && .AVIATION... Clearing conditions expected through Friday evening when another storm is expected to bring increased winds and chances for snow Friday night into Saturday. Ridgetop winds will begin to pick up on Friday afternoon with gusts in excess of 90 kts possible overnight creating significant turbulence in the lee of the Sierra and wind shear possible, mainly at KTVL where surface winds are funneled from the south. Surface winds are expected to peak early Saturday morning with gusts up to 30-40 mph possible for most areas, and 50+ possible in KMMH. Precipitation is expected to move into the Sierra early Saturday morning with up to 1-2" of snow accumulations at KTVL/KTRK. Accumulations at KRNO/KCXP/KMMH is much less likely, but a period of showers is possible with a light dusting of snow up to half an inch on the high end. More significant storms are likely next week, but timing and intensity remain low predictability. -Zach && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$ For more information from the National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/reno