705 FGUS71 KBGM 092014 CCA ESFBGM NYC007-015-017-023-025-053-065-067-077-097-099-101-105-107-109- 123-PAC015-069-079-103-115-127-131-162015- Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook...CORRECTED National Weather Service Binghamton NY 314 PM EST Thu Jan 9 2020 ...NEARLY AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL THROUGH JANUARY 22nd... This is the first in the series of regularly scheduled hydrologic outlooks issued during the Winter and Spring season. This outlook is designed to provide a general overview of river flood potential (not flash flooding) across Central New York and Northeast Pennsylvania for the next two weeks...January 9th through January 22nd. ...SUMMARY... The risk of flooding across the major basins of central New York and northeast Pennsylvania is about AVERAGE for the next two weeks. An above average risk of flooding exists north of the Mohawk River in Oneida county where there is excessive snow cover and stored water equivalent. ...CURRENT CONDITIONS... .CHEMUNG BASIN... .Precipitation (past 14 days): Normal .Snow Cover: Much below normal. (less than 2”) .Snow Water Equivalent: Much below normal (0.5” or less) .14-Day Average Streamflow: Above normal .River Ice: Below normal (minimal to none) .Ground State: Wet/Partially frozen .NORTH BRANCH SUSQUEHANNA BASIN (NY)... .Precipitation (past 14 days): Below normal .Snow Cover: Much below normal. (less than 2”) .Water Equivalent: Much below normal (0.5” or less) .14-Day Average Streamflow...Above normal .River Ice...Below normal (minimal to none) .Ground State... Very wet/Partially frozen .UPPER MAIN STEM SUSQUEHANNA BASIN (PA)... .Precipitation (past 14 days)...Below normal .Snow Cover...Much below normal. (less than 2”) .Water Equivalent...Much below normal (0.25” or less) .14-day Average Streamflow...Normal .River Ice...Below normal (none) .Ground State...Wet .UPPER DELAWARE BASIN... .Precipitation (past 14 days)...Below normal .Snow Cover...Much below normal (less than 2”) .Water Equivalent...Much below normal (0.25” or less) .14-Day Avg. Streamflow...Normal .River Ice...Below none. (minimal to none) .Reservoir Levels...Above normal pools .Ground State...Wet/Partially frozen .OSWEGO DRAINAGE / FINGER LAKES... .Precipitation (past 14 days)...Above normal .Snow Cover...Much below normal .Water Equivalent...Below normal .14-Day Average Streamflow...Above normal .River Ice...Below normal .Lake Levels...Normal pools .Ground State...Wet/Partially frozen ...FORECAST OUTLOOK... .FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS: The official 6 to 14 day outlook calls for much milder than normal January conditions and above average precipitation. The first few days of this outlook will evolve into a wet storm pattern with a potential for heavy rainfall, particularly across northernmost portions of Central NY. Given the time of year and current conditions, efficient runoff is expected to allow river levels to rise into early next week. .LONG RANGE RIVER MODELING AND PROBABILITY FORECASTS: The ensemble of river forecast systems suggest a potential for minor flooding at a few points in the area during the next two weeks. In general, flood probabilities are less than 30 percent for most basins, however, several of the more hydrologically sensitive headwater points in the Susquehanna basin, and Oneida county north of the Mohawk River, were indicating a greater flood risk. When comparing current hydrologic forecast statistics against historical flows, most basins were indicating a small, but still above average risk of flooding for the month of January. ...IN CONCLUSION... This outlook estimates the potential for river and lake flooding based on a current overview of hydro-meteorological factors which contribute to flooding. It is important to note that significant flooding does not occur from snow melt alone. Rainfall, how much and in how short a period of time, is the most important factor in determining the severity of flooding. The next Winter/Spring Flood Outlook will be issued by this office on January 23, 2019. If conditions change in the interim: Flood Watches, Warnings or Advisories will be issued as necessary. $$ JAB