226 FXUS64 KBMX 062044 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 244 PM CST Mon Jan 6 2020 .SHORT TERM... /Updated at 0227 PM CST Mon Jan 06 2020/ Tonight through Tuesday night. A fast moving upper level impulse will bring increasing cloud cover and scattered light showers overnight. The rain will develop over the northwest counties initially and spread eastward, mainly impacting areas along and north of I-20. The rain should be east of Alabama by sunrise Tuesday. Rainfall amounts will be around one-tenth of an inch or less. Temperatures will be much warmer tonight due to southwest winds ahead of the front and cloud cover. Lows are forecast to be in the 40s. Skies will become mostly sunny by late morning Tuesday, but cold air advection behind the front will produce afternoon temperatures 5-10 degrees cooler than today. 58/rose .LONG TERM... /Updated at 200 PM CST Mon Jan 06 2020/ Wednesday through Monday. Surface high pressure will continue to influence the local area late Wednesday and into Thursday before a warm front lifts north from the Gulf of Mexico early Friday morning. Expect rain chances to be on the increase late Thursday into early Friday from the west. Rain showers will continue to increase much of the day Friday with the active southwest flow aloft and a deepening trough to the west. Cloudy skies are expected across much of the area, limiting the solar insolation. Strong low-level warm advection along with height falls from the potent upper trough will help steepen lapse rates and the surge northward of higher temperatures and moisture in the lower levels will support SBCAPE values sufficient for deep convection into the day Saturday. A line of storms, likely a QLCS, will race from west to east across the area during the day Saturday with a 60-70 kt LLJ available by model simulations. The combination of robust dynamics along with sufficient instability will pose a risk for damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. The recent heavy rainfall and water rises on waterways leaves much of the forecast area vulnerable to further heavy rainfall. Localized flooding in poor drainage and low-lying areas, along with rises again on local waterways, potentially reaching flood stage. As with any forecast several days out a lot of the key details remain to be resolved and the timing and locations in the risk will be further refined through time. Check back for updates through the rest of the work week as additional information becomes available. A surface low develops over the Southern Mississippi River Valley and moves quickly northeast during the day Saturday as the surface cold front moves east through the area. Behind the front expect clearing skies and dry conditions Saturday night and Sunday. The front looks to stall north of the Central Gulf Coast and eventually lift north as a warm front Sunday night with increasing rain chances areawide Monday through Tuesday. This next round of rain could potentially contribute to continued localized flooding due to the persisting moist ground conditions and water levels expected to remain elevated going into this time period. Some model solutions indicate several inches of rain falling across portions of the area through midweek next week and while confidence is low this far out, the potential for continued rain will be a concern for flooding. 05 && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF Discussion. Despite clear skies across Alabama at the moment, a fast developing low pressure system will push a cold from through the state late tonight and into Tuesday morning. Cigs with bases 4-6K feet agl will develop over northwest Alabama by 00z and develop southward across central Alabama overnight. Cigs will likely fall below 3k feet agl for a few hours near fropa across northern TAF sites. Sct shwrs will also proceed cold front, but intensity will not likely reduce vsbys blo 5 miles. Clearing will occur within 3-6 hours after fropa. 58/rose && .FIRE WEATHER... A fast moving low pressure system will bring scattered light showers, less than one-quarter of an inch, to north Alabama overnight. Skies will clear Tuesday morning and winds will become westerly behind the front. A significant storm system will impact the area Friday and Saturday. There are no fire weather concerns at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 43 55 30 58 33 / 40 20 0 0 0 Anniston 44 56 31 60 36 / 40 20 0 0 0 Birmingham 45 56 34 60 40 / 40 10 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 45 59 33 63 39 / 40 0 0 0 0 Calera 45 57 33 61 39 / 40 10 0 0 0 Auburn 46 58 34 59 39 / 30 20 0 0 0 Montgomery 48 60 33 62 38 / 20 10 0 0 0 Troy 47 60 34 62 40 / 10 10 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/... None. && $$