468 FXUS62 KJAX 030025 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 725 PM EST Thu Jan 2 2020 .UPDATE... Partly cloudy skies will continue across the forecast area Tonight. Area 00z soundings showing a substantial increase in low-level moisture compared to 12z soundings. After Midnight, low-level flow will increase out of the SW from the northeast Gulf of Mexico, causing surface temperatures and dewpoints to slowly rise. Weak low-level lift is indicated, which should support a stratus cloud deck spreading northeast from northeast Gulf of Mexico across much of our forecast area early Friday morning. Have made minimal changes to low temperatures, but changed the diurnal pattern of hourly temperatures/dew points to reflect minimums around Midnight and rising values thereafter. Tricky sky forecast Friday. Should have widespread low cloudiness across the area, as shown by the HRRR, in the morning. Model forecast soundings indicate a very strong thermal inversion just above this cloud deck, which will make it difficult to break up during the day. Should see slow rise in temperatures in warm advection pattern, but cloudiness could result in highs a few degrees below current forecast. Did not change in update as just a few hours of afternoon partial sun could get high temperatures to current forecast. Rain chances Friday appear limited to our western counties...spreading eastward Friday night and Saturday. && .AVIATION... [Through 00Z Saturday] Latest higher-resolution model ensemble guidance and HRRR guidance indicate VFR conditions Tonight. However, after 09Z, will see a surge of low-level moisture across the area from the northeast Gulf of Mexico on 30-40 kt low-level flow, which should create large area of stratiform cloudiness over TAF sites. Latest HRRR suggests Cigs could be IFR...have limited height to OVC010 in 00z TAFs. With model soundings showing a strong inversion above this ceiling, may be tough for ceiling to break...may just see a gradual rise to about BKN025 by 21Z Fri. 5-10kt SE winds this evening will become more southerly later Tonight, with 10-15kt S to SW winds Friday. && .MARINE... Winds increase tonight as high pressure moves east out of the region. Small Craft Exercise Caution headline is in effect for tonight for the offshore waters as winds increase to the 15-20 kt. A cold front approaches the region late Friday and pushes off the coast Saturday morning. Showers and a few thunderstorms will accompany this front. Small Craft Advisories are likely ahead of and behind the front as winds and seas increase. Gale force gusts will also be possible late Saturday through Sunday morning mainly for the offshore waters. Gale Watch may be needed. Winds and seas begin to subside on Sunday as high pressure builds in. Rip Currents: low to moderate through Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 60 78 60 68 37 / 10 60 70 60 0 SSI 61 76 61 69 40 / 0 20 60 80 10 JAX 61 80 64 73 40 / 0 10 60 80 10 SGJ 62 79 63 73 41 / 0 10 30 70 10 GNV 62 81 64 71 39 / 10 20 60 70 10 OCF 63 83 64 73 41 / 10 10 50 70 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. &&