699 FXUS61 KCLE 022336 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 636 PM EST Thu Jan 2 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Moisture will surge north into the area overnight as a wave of low pressure moves northeast across the Upper Ohio Valley. Another area of low pressure will track northeast through the Ohio Valley on Friday night, pulling colder air across the region in it's wake on Saturday. A ridge will build east across the Great Lakes Region Saturday night followed by a low pressure system sliding southeast across the Great Lakes Sunday into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Update...No changes for the update. Original...Deep southwest flow extending from the Gulf of Mexico will transport moisture north into the region overnight. Cloud cover will thicken and lower this evening as low level moisture surges north. Dewpoints have been slow to come up today, still in the upper 20s to mid 30s late this afternoon so precipitation will take some time to begin. Higher dewpoints in the 40s are starting to work into far SW Ohio with mid 40 dewpoints across the lower Ohio Valley. Rain will make a northward push after midnight as overrunning ramps up with amplification of the upper level ridge. Most of the area now expected to range from just a few hundredths in Toledo to near a half inch of rain in the southeast as the axis of highest precipitable water values now remains just southeast of the area. Rain is expected to taper off from west to east into Friday afternoon as drier air arrives in the mid-levels. Temperatures tonight will fall with evaporational cooling into the lower 40s but remain above normal highs for early January. Highs on Friday only expected to climb a handful of degrees into the mid to upper 40s with clouds and showers around. By Friday night we see an impressive piece of northern stream energy dive across the Midwest, phasing with the trough lifting up from Texas. Another wave of low pressure is expected to develop in response to this wave and move northeast across the Ohio Valley. Precipitation is likely to develop across Northwest Ohio on Friday evening as mid-level deformation develops that will expand as it moves across northern Ohio and NW Pennsylvania overnight. Temperatures will start off mild Friday evening with precipitation falling as all rain before starting to fall as northerly winds increase overnight. Kept the forecast as all rain until late Saturday night when some snow mixes in but the transition time will be something to keep an eye on. Somewhat concerned that any higher precip rates could result in a faster transition to snow but confidence in placement is not sufficient yet to include any pockets of light accumulations during the overnight, especially with lows only approaching the freezing mark in NW Ohio and falling on wet pavement. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Surface low pressure will be moving northeast away from the area on Saturday as an upper trough digs southeast from the upper Great Lakes through the Ohio valley. The GFS continues to be an outlier, with a stronger low farther northwest into the area, while the GEM/EC are quicker, weaker and farther southeast. Favor the GEM/EC solutions, with the low centered over western PA and a cold front southeast into the area by 12Z Saturday. The synoptic precip associated with the low will move east of the area through the day, with rain changing to snow throughout the day from west to east. Lake effect snow showers are possible across the snow belt on Saturday, although limited moisture and marginal instability should limit organization and subsequent accumulation. Light lake effect will subside and lingering into the day on Sunday before a brief surface ridge builds across the lake with winds backing southwest. This is very short lived as a clipper tracks southeast across the Great Lakes Sunday afternoon and night. Synoptic precip should reenter the region late Sunday afternoon, with a rain/snow mix transitioning to all snow early in the evening. The track is favored just north of the forecast area, but the best chances for precip in the forecast area will be across the snow belt, near the southern periphery of the track and with lake enhancement/lake effect on the backside of the system Sunday night into Monday morning. Ridging will build back across the region through Monday with lake effect snow diminishing as winds back southwest. Temperature on Saturday will start out in the mid/upper 30s northwest to low/mid 40s southeast, but will be in a steady to falling state through the day as CAA ramps up. Highs on Sunday will recover back into the mid/upper 30s after Saturday night lows in the upper 20s. Highs on Monday will be in the mid 30s across northwest PA to near 40 elsewhere. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A somewhat active pattern will continue next week with high pressure building east of the area Monday night. The GFS continue to be an outlier from the EC/GEM solutions, which show low pressure developing somewhere over the lower Ohio valley moving northeast across the area Tuesday as a sharp upper trough digs east into the region. The EC/GEM do have appreciable differences in the synoptic evolution, but general timing and broader pattern remains similar. The GFS is faster with the upper trough and favors a coastal low development in the Mid Atlantic region Tuesday. Regardless, confidence is higher on a shot of colder air across the Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday, which could bring our best shot at organized lake effect in several weeks. Strong high pressure will build northward across the eastern CONUS Thursday with a return to above normal temperatures. && .AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/... MVFR CIGS lifting north into the area this evening as deep moisture works its way north into the region from the Gulf Coastal region. Expect conditions to continue to drop through MVFR into IFR and LIFR as rain moves north into the area mainly during and after the 04z-08z time frame. Expect restrictions to persist through much of Friday. .OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in scattered rain and/or snow showers Saturday through Monday. && .MARINE... South/southwest winds will continue to weaken through this evening across the lake. Winds will become west to northwest Friday as a cold front moves east across the lake. As low pressure develops and tracks along the front south of the lake Friday night into Saturday, winds will sharply increase out of the northeast, backing northwest by Saturday afternoon as the low moves away from the lake. Cold air advection will bring northwest winds of 20-25 kts Saturday night, with a near certain chance of a small craft advisory needed. Winds will subside a bit into Sunday, quickly backing southwest as brief ridging builds across the lake. Another cold front will move across the lake late Sunday into Monday, with winds becoming westerly and increasing again to 20-25 kts. Winds will subside Monday night as high pressure briefly builds across the lake before the next system moves into the region on Tuesday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KEC NEAR TERM...KEC/TK SHORT TERM...Greenawalt LONG TERM...Greenawalt AVIATION...TK MARINE...Greenawalt