224 FXUS63 KICT 012040 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 240 PM CST Wed Jan 1 2020 .MESOSCALE DISCUSSION... Issued at 1204 PM CST Wed Jan 1 2020 Latest surface analysis shows broad troughing across the Southern/Central High Plains, with a somewhat tighter pressure gradient from northern Oklahoma into eastern Kansas. Aloft, a modest LLJ resides over the same general area, with speeds of 30-40kt around 925 mb per recent RAP analysis. The boundary layer is fairly dry per latest SFC obs, but T/Td spreads aren't too large. Additionally, with increasing southerly flow through the day, some "higher" dewpoints should advect in from the south. For this afternoon, the forecast was adjusted some to account for the expectation of not quite as dry low-levels as originally forecast. Overall, this should offset an otherwise higher fire weather threat this afternoon (based on the expected wind speeds/gusts alone). Recent widespread rainfall will likely help in keeping the threat more marginal as well. That said, wind speeds are increasing faster than forecast, and speeds/gusts were adjusted up some through this afternoon to account for this trend. Despite humidity values potentially not as low this afternoon, there will still be an elevated fire danger due to the breezy/windy conditions (mainly along/east of the KS Turnpike). Regarding the winds, even with an increase in the forecast, still thinking values will be on the marginal side and we'll plan to hold off on any wind headlines for now. That said, I wouldn't be surprised to see a few gusts to near 40 mph across the Flint Hills area this afternoon. Martin && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 230 PM CST Wed Jan 1 2020 Trough is positioned from central Canada to the Baja California Peninsula. An increase in wind speeds has occurred today with mixing across south central and southeast Kansas into Oklahoma; wind speeds have reached sustained speeds of 20 to near 30 mph with gusts to 35 mph. Drier air and cured grasses resulted in elevated grassland fire danger. A mild day occurred with afternoon temperatures from the low to mid 40s in central Kansas to the mid and upper 50s west and southeast of there. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 230 PM CST Wed Jan 1 2020 Highlight and challenge: Slight chances of precipitation Thursday- Friday The trough mentioned in the Synopsis section which is stretched from central Canada to the Baja California Peninsula will move east on Thursday. An increase in forcing associated with this wave could prompt precipitation on Thursday into early Friday, but the moisture transport isn't much to speak of. Precipitation chances for this time period have been a challenge the past couple of days with the models diminishing the possibilities. This part of the forecast resulted in changes once more with only slight chances for precipitation. Rain will be the predominant type with the potential for a rain and snow mix in southeast Kansas on Friday morning. Cooler air should usher in behind this system to drop high temperatures to near seasonal normal values which are around 40 degrees. Lingering clouds particularly in southeast Kansas could keep afternoon temperatures lower than currently forecast with little variability in the daytime values. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 230 PM CST Wed Jan 1 2020 Highlights: 1) Return to around 50 degrees Sunday and Monday 2) Possible system next Monday - Tuesday There is a weak wave that will move through Saturday night into Sunday with minimal impact to the area. Temperatures should climb back to around 50 degrees on Sunday and Monday. The next trough of note would be Monday into Tuesday; however, the models are divergent in their timing and depth of the system thus reducing the confidence on what would occur. This was mentioned in the previous discussion as well. This system is something to monitor in the coming days. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1204 PM CST Wed Jan 1 2020 Gusty winds this afternoon (south-central and southeast KS). MVFR CIGs possible late tonight/THU AM (SE KS). A broad surface trough resides across the Southern and Central High Plains at this time, with a somewhat tighter pressure gradient across eastern Kansas. This has already led to gusty winds for much of the area and this will continue into late this afternoon/early evening, especially along and east of a KHUT to KSLN line. As winds decrease some this evening, there will be a shorter-lived window for LLWS (mainly SE KS) before winds aloft decrease by late tonight. Uncertainty in the forecast increases as we head into Thursday morning. Southerly low-level flow should allow a gradual increase in low level moisture east of the KS Turnpike. Satellite imagery this afternoon shows low clouds beginning to move north through eastern OK. Thinking these low clouds will eventually move into SE KS, leading to MVFR, or lower, CIGs. Some 4-6SM VIS may occur in this area as well. Some model guidance suggests IFR/LIFR CIGs are possible, but confidence in this occurring isn't high enough yet to go that low in the TAFs. The potential is certainly there, though. EXTENDED OUTLOOK: Lower CIGs will likely continue to impact SE KS into Thursday evening and may be accompanied by some DZ or RA and reduced VIS. Conditions should improve late Friday or Friday night. Martin && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 230 PM CST Wed Jan 1 2020 Higher wind speeds due to mixing this afternoon combined with drier air and cured grasses have increased the Grassland Fire Danger Index to the very high to marginally extreme categories for south central and southeast Kansas. As discussed in the Mesoscale section, the lower levels are not quite as dry as previously expected which combined with the recent rainfall could slightly decrease the threat. However, outdoor burning is still discouraged in those areas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 34 51 31 45 / 0 20 20 0 Hutchinson 31 46 29 43 / 0 20 10 0 Newton 32 48 30 43 / 0 20 10 0 ElDorado 35 52 32 44 / 0 20 20 0 Winfield-KWLD 38 56 32 45 / 0 20 20 10 Russell 27 45 27 42 / 0 10 10 0 Great Bend 27 46 27 43 / 0 20 10 0 Salina 30 46 29 42 / 0 20 10 0 McPherson 30 46 28 42 / 0 20 10 0 Coffeyville 40 58 35 45 / 0 20 20 20 Chanute 39 55 34 44 / 0 20 20 20 Iola 38 54 33 43 / 0 20 20 20 Parsons-KPPF 39 56 35 44 / 0 20 20 20 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ MESOSCALE...RM SYNOPSIS...VJP SHORT TERM...VJP LONG TERM...VJP AVIATION...RM FIRE WEATHER...VJP