840 
FXUS63 KFSD 312107
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
307 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2019

Quiet night ahead with westerly winds transitioning to southerly 
overnight as surface ridge axis slides off to the east. Slightly 
stronger winds just off the surface will lead to elevation dependent 
breezier conditions, focused mainly through the Buffalo Ridge area. 
It will be another cold night with lows in the teens.

The upper level flow becomes more westerly on Wednesday as a surface 
trough drifts across the Northern Plains. This will bring an 
increase in clouds, and milder temperatures with highs into the 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2019

The surface trough and an upper level shortwave work through the 
region on Wednesday night and Thursday. Little affect from these 
features, with most models keeping it dry, although the ECMWF does 
produce light precipitation across the area during this time frame. 
With it being an outlier, kept it dry at this point. The moderation 
in temperatures continues with lows on Wednesday night in the 20s 
and highs on Thursday a couple of degrees warmer than Wednesday.

A more significant wave tracks through the region on Thursday night 
and Friday, and could bring a little light snow to the area during 
the period. With cold air advection, thermal profiles will support 
snow, though there does appear to be possible saturation issues in 
the dendritic layer which would give us a little freezing drizzle. 
At this point, and in coordination with surrounding offices, decided 
to keep precipitation type as snow since pops are so low at this 
time and there are model differences.

Saturday through Monday looks to remain primarily dry, though a 
fairly strong shortwave tracks into the Northern Plains on Sunday. 
Even so, at this time any significant precipitation looks to remain 
to our north. It does appear to be windy on Sunday with a passage of 
a frontal boundary. Temperatures will bounce around between normal 
to just above normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1048 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2019

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Northwesterly
winds this afternoon, transitioning to light south/southwesterly
by this evening into the overnight hours.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JM