321 FXUS63 KMPX 311711 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1111 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2019 .updated for 18z taf discussion below... .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 414 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2019 A much quieter short term period ahead. Patchy blowing snow may persist for a few hours early this morning, but otherwise decreasing wind speeds are expected which will limit blowing snow to mainly early this morning. Otherwise, a dry period ahead with temperatures closer to seasonal normals. As of early this morning, the low pressure system responsible for the active weather over the last few days was positioned over the Great Lakes, continuing a slow trek to the east. 500H height rises over the local area today will aid in shunting stratus associated with the low to the east as well, leading to clearing skies as the day progresses. With northwest flow at the surface persisting for much of the day, highs will be relatively tame, only rising about 5- 7 degrees above early morning lows. A surface ridge will work across the area from west to east this evening, weakening winds and turning them southwesterly. Partly cloud skies and light winds will allow temperatures to cool into the single digits across central MN and western WI, and teens mainly across the far south and metro area. Southwest flow will be enhanced tomorrow as a longwave trough digs toward the Baja of California. Conditions will remain dry, but cloud cover will increase. Highs will recover into the upper 20s across central MN, and into the mid 30s across far southern MN. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 414 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2019 Overall, a rather tranquil long term period lies ahead. There will be two systems to watch, but at this point neither look all that impactful. The first system still appears it will pass to our south Thursday into Friday night. Model consistency with this system has been pretty good in the last day or so and very few ensemble members of the GFS or the ECMWF support much in the way of accumulating snow for our area. There will be a wave tracking southeast behind this system which could produce some light snow or flurries, but the best chance for this will be to the southwest. Barring any unforeseen significant shifts northward with the main system, which is still possible being a few days out, the rest of the week will be pretty quiet with above normal temps. The second system, this time a clipper, should track southeast across northern Minnesota and across the northern Great lakes Sunday and Sunday night. The best forcing with these systems is to the north of the track, so we should miss out on the bulk of this one as well. However, steepening lapse rates behind a cold front and a deepening DGZ as CAA continues in the lower atmosphere could allow for scattered snow showers or flurries to develop. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 1110 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2019 Some lingering MVFR CIG stratus mainly over west central WI early. SHould clear with mainly some high clouds/VFR much of the period. Could see some lowering cigs along central mn into Wed morning affecting KAXN/KSTC but still remaining VFR. May see some patchy freezing drizzle/flurries into central MN in the afternoon as well. Left TAF sites dry. Northwest wind around 10kts becoming light south and increasing to around 10kts again Wed morning. KMSP...no additional concerns. Wed night...VFR. Wind SW 5 kts. Thu...MVFR/IFR cigs developing in aftn. Wind S 5 kts. Fri...MVFR/IFR cigs. Chc -sn. Wind becoming NW 10 G17kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SPD LONG TERM...BORGHOFF AVIATION...DWE