177 
FXUS64 KBMX 310550
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1150 PM CST Mon Dec 30 2019

.UPDATE...
For 06Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 245 PM CST Mon Dec 30 2019/
Through Tonight.

Quiet weather conditions continue tonight as surface high
pressure slowly builds into the region from the west. With cooler
and drier air in place, temperatures will fall into the mid to 
upper 30s tonight with clear skies. Elevated boundary layer winds
should prevent early morning fog development. 

14

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 359 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2019/
Tuesday through Sunday. 

Dry and mild conditions are expected on Tuesday and Wednesday as 
high pressure moves from west to east across the region. 

On Thursday, the phasing of two shortwaves will lead to a large 
trough extending from the Plains southward into Mexico. Isentropic
and large-scale lift and a strong low-level jet will combine to 
produce a swath of moderate to perhaps locally heavy rainfall on 
across much of our forecast area. Northward advancement of a warm
front should be hindered by the rain shield, and surface-based 
instability may remain to our south. Severe weather is not 
expected at this time. Rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches could lead 
to some localized minor flooding in poor drainage areas. However, 
there is not enough confidence to include a mention of flooding on
Thursday in the HWO. Rivers may also experience rises over the 
weekend. As the upper-level trough shifts eastward, a frontal 
passage is expected on Friday, with cooler and drier conditions to
follow for Saturday and Sunday. 

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

VFR TAFs are expected for the next 24 hours with the cooler and 
drier air that filtered in behind the recent front. Clear skies
are expected through the forecast. Look for west to northwest 
winds tonight. They should be fairly light but not quite calm 
everywhere while gradients remain up. Winds look to lighten for 
Tuesday evening after sunset as ridging spreads from Texas into 
Georgia with much less of a gradient.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Drier and cooler conditions continue through Wednesday, with winds
from the west. Early morning fog or low clouds is not expected.
Afternoon relative humidity values will remain above critical
levels. Rain chances return again Wednesday night lasting through
early Saturday. There are no fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     34  52  29  54  39 /   0   0   0   0  50 
Anniston    36  53  32  56  40 /   0   0   0   0  40 
Birmingham  36  53  34  56  43 /   0   0   0  10  60 
Tuscaloosa  36  56  34  58  44 /   0   0   0  10  70 
Calera      37  54  33  56  42 /   0   0   0  10  60 
Auburn      38  55  33  56  42 /   0   0   0   0  40 
Montgomery  37  58  34  59  43 /   0   0   0  10  60 
Troy        38  58  33  59  44 /   0   0   0   0  50 

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None. 

&&

$$

14/87/08