263 
FXUS63 KTOP 302323
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
523 PM CST Mon Dec 30 2019

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 202 PM CST Mon Dec 30 2019

Currently, at the 19Z hour, satellite and surface obs show the slow 
moving mid-latitude cyclone over the central Great Lakes region with 
the surface low center over the upper peninsula of Michigan.  

Expansive wrap-around cold air stratus is slowly beginning to clear 
from west to east and will take its sweet time doing so.  Therefore, 
eastern areas of the forecast area may not see any Sun today while 
western areas are enjoying a few hours of Sun.  With at least some 
increased insolation temperatures in extreme western areas should 
rise a degree or so warmer than extreme northeastern sections of 
Kansas.  All in all, high temps top out around the middle 30s.  As 
the surface to H85 gradient starts to relax, winds will eventually 
show signs of calming back down a bit but remain breezy through 
Tuesday morning.  As a result of a well enough mixed boundary layer 
tonight, have kept temps in the middle to upper 20s.  Tuesday highs 
are still around normal to slightly below for this time of year with 
a west/northwest light breeze in place.  Still upper 30s to around 
40 should be maintained. 

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 202 PM CST Mon Dec 30 2019

Quiet weather still anticipated overall this week outside of the 
late Thursday into Friday time frame.  An overall meridional flow 
pattern remains in place, so as southerly flow becomes established 
into Wednesday, then high temps should get a nice boost to the low 
50s into Thursday.  Phasing differences with northern stream energy 
as well as questions with moisture quality overall, lead to a lower 
confidence forecast for Thursday night.  It still appears that 
thermodynamic profiles should support mostly liquid precipitation 
until the overnight period with cooling of the BL and CAA increase 
behind the upper system.  This probably leads to a period of rain 
changing to at least a rain/snow mix.  Amounts vary at this time 
with a large spread.  The next couple of forecast cycles should 
begin to come into alignment better on the overall potential amounts 
but it looks to be a fairly short lived event before tracking east 
of the area before ridging builds back into the area for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 523 PM CST Mon Dec 30 2019

VFR stratus cigs will gradually clear through 04Z with clear 
skies expected through the rest of the period. Northwest winds 
near 14 kts with gusts to 22 kts will continue though 04Z then 
decrease to around 10 kts with occasional gusts to 20 kts.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Drake
LONG TERM...Drake
AVIATION...53