645 
FXUS64 KLUB 302312
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
512 PM CST Mon Dec 30 2019

.AVIATION...
VFR weather and light winds will prevail through the forecast 
period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 229 PM CST Mon Dec 30 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...
Visible satellite shows a deep upper low circulating over the 
Midwest this afternoon, leaving a massive swath of snow in its 
wake...upwards of 26" in some places. This system is also 
responsible for our continued cool weather today.

We'll find ourselves in between systems for the last day of the 
decade, so a calm, cool day will take us out of 2019. 2020 opens 
with split flow that results in a breezy day for us. Another upper
low will be digging off the SOCAL coast tonight and continue to 
dig to the southern Baja by Wednesday, while on the northern 
side, troughing will begin to develop across the north and 
central Plains. As these features attempt to phase, a sfc-H85 low 
develops over the intersection of NM/CO/OK/TX inducing a tight 
gradient. As this low traverses the TX Panhandle late Wednesday 
through Wednesday night ahead of the main upper trough, we'll see 
gusty winds across the forecast area develop. Models are still a 
bit spread on how deeply we will mix, the difference between 
tapping into 30KT or 50KT winds, though this pattern suggests the 
lower end of mixing, which we have reflected in this forecast. The
other main question for this forecast package remains how far 
spread will PoPs truly reach on Thursday as the main trough passes
with the cold front. The GFS is slightly faster with the trough, 
and would therefore keep our chances to a minimum. The Euro has 
kept to a slower track, which would allow for a few more places to
likely see rainfall; however, neither solution lends to a soaking
rainfall event. Moisture will be limited, which is why we have 
leaned towards a drier forecast.

Quiet weather will ensue throughout the weekend as ridging builds in 
and we slowly warm up. Next front is poised to arrive early next 
week.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/28