730 
FXUS63 KFGF 302046
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
246 PM CST Mon Dec 30 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 246 PM CST Mon Dec 30 2019

Impacts from the departing winter storm continue to wind down,
being mainly restricted to clearing off roads and surfaces. Wind
speeds will continue to drop tonight, and they will be much lower
on Tuesday. Any patchy blowing and drifting snow should end by
early evening. There may still be a few patches of light snow
through the evening east of the Red River Valley, but with little
additional accumulation. It looks like there should be some 
breaks of sun on Tuesday, although it will stay on the cooler 
side. Lows Tuesday night will depend on cloud cover, but winds do 
look like they will hold up. However the lowest winds will be east
of the Red River Valley, so have gone with the coolest lows 
there.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 246 PM CST Mon Dec 30 2019

Amplified pattern continues to dominate the CONUS on Wednesday with 
H5 ridging to our west and a deep trough to the east. This remains 
the case through late Friday when the ridge flattens and moves 
eastward, allowing nearly zonal flow to take over heading into the 
weekend. By late Sunday, the upper flow looks to return a more 
active and amplified pattern once more as a transient shortwave 
deepens and moves across our area. 

For the Wednesday through Friday time period, look for a couple of 
weak, transient H7 shortwaves to move across the region, bringing a 
chance for light snow or freezing drizzle Wednesday afternoon 
through Thursday afternoon. Confidence in the freezing drizzle 
solution is rather low at this time, but worth noting due to the 
high impact of low amounts of freezing drizzle. Temperatures at the 
surface will climb into the middle to upper 20s on Thursday for 
areas north of I-94 with low 30s to the south. QPF amounts with this 
system will be light, with ensemble mean solutions of generally less 
than 0.02 inches.

Another chance for light snow is in the forecast this weekend as 
another shortwave moves across the region. Initial guidance brings 
light snow into the CWA, mainly for areas north of I-94 during the 
day on Saturday. Confidence remains low as possible solutions 
deviate substantially within the ensemble suite.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CST Mon Dec 30 2019

Ceilings continue to fluctuate across the area as the winter storm
loosens its grip. Wind speeds will hold fairly steady through the
afternoon, then diminish tonight... and be much weaker on 
Tuesday. Ceilings will be a tough call. Generally kept the TAFs 
somewhere in the MVFR range today into tonight, with better 
conditions expected on Tuesday.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Lynch
AVIATION...Godon