040 
FXUS63 KLSX 292057
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
257 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2019

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Monday Night)
Issued at 251 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2019

Cold front will continue to slide to the east across forecast area 
early this evening. In the meantime, light rain will be on the 
increase with best chances of rain over portions of southeast MO and 
southwestern IL. Colder air will be slow to filter in, so the 
precipitation will remain in the form of rain before coming to an 
end just after midnight. Otherwise, west winds will be on the 
increase overnight with gusts near 30 mph at times. Lows tonight 
will be in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

On Monday, system will still influence the weather across the area 
with sc deck and tightening pressure gradient. Expect sustained 
winds of 15 to 20 mph with gusts near 35 mph at times before 
diminishing Monday night. Even with the colder air, highs on Monday 
will be near normal in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Lows Monday night 
will be in the mid 20s to low 30s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM...  (Tuesday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 251 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2019

Dry and near normal temperatures for the last day of 2019, then as 
surface ridge builds in, southerly flow will return to the region. 
So moderating temperatures on New Year's Day with highs in the upper 
40s to low 50s.

Digging upper level trof over the desert SW will begin to lift out 
towards forecast area late on New Year's Day with increasing mid and 
high clouds Wednesday night. Still some timing, strength and 
placement differences among the extended models, but are coming into 
better agreement with precipitation chances. Rain will begin to 
spread northward into forecast area early Thursday morning with best 
chances of rain Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. System 
will exit by Friday afternoon. Beyond Friday night, extended models 
have very different solutions on handling of next system. For now 
will have above normal temperatures and dry weather next weekend.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2019

Cold front has begun to move into the forecast area as of 17z with
winds veering to the southwest to west behind it with gusts near
25kts at times. In the meantime, plenty of low level moisture 
associated with another shortwave continues to stream to the 
northeast towards forecast area. Will see rain increase in 
coverage, moving into the St. Louis metro area after 22z with best
chances between 01z and 06z Monday. KCOU and KUIN will remain on 
the outer fringes of the rain shield so just kept vicinity shower 
mention in those areas through this evening. Otherwise, ceilings 
will lower to MVFR over the next couple of hours and remain that 
way through rest of forecast period.

Byrd
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis     34  40  31  43 /  80   5   0   0 
Quincy          29  35  29  37 /  30  10  10   0 
Columbia        30  36  28  41 /  20   5   0   0 
Jefferson City  31  39  28  43 /  20   0   0   0 
Salem           35  41  30  41 / 100   5   0   0 
Farmington      33  42  28  44 /  90   5   0   0 

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$
WFO LSX