938 FXUS63 KIND 272013 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 313 PM EST Fri Dec 27 2019 .UPDATE...AVIATION sections updated && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 248 PM EST Fri Dec 27 2019 A strong frontal system is expected to affect the area by late in the weekend. In the wake of this system, high pressure is expected to build into the area for the early to middle parts of next week. Another low pressure system may affect the area towards the later parts of next week. && .NEAR TERM /This Afternoon and Tonight/... Issued at 248 PM EST Fri Dec 27 2019 Satellite indicates some thin spots developing in the low cloud deck over the past hour or so. Short term models continue to be very bullish on the clearing this afternoon, but given how things have been evolving so far, this may be too fast. Model soundings suggest the low level inversion will start to dissipate this evening, so significant clearing of the low cloud may hold off until then. Regardless of the low cloud, there should be some mid and high cloud passing over the area as well, based on satellite. Will tend to go a little more pessimistic with the cloud cover tonight, based on above. Don't think temperatures will fall too much tonight, given the weak cold advection and cloud cover. However, given current temperatures are well below guidance, will cut a few degrees off of the GFS MOS lows tonight. && .SHORT TERM /Saturday through Monday/... Issued at 248 PM EST Fri Dec 27 2019 Models suggest upper low currently moving through the southwest parts of the country, will eject into the Great Lakes by Monday. The associated surface cold front looks to pass through the local area either on Sunday or Sunday evening. Models are leaning a little more towards the idea of secondary surface low development on Sunday, as a mid level jet max rotates into the Ohio Valley Sunday night. Will start to bring in PoPs Saturday afternoon, but it appears the best precipitation threat will be from late Saturday night through Sunday evening. Will hit the PoPs hardest at these times. Threat for embedded thunderstorms and heavy rain exists from late Saturday night into Sunday evening, as models suggest some elevated instability and very high precipitable waters for this time of year will be moving over the local area. Will leave in some lingering chance PoPs for light rain or mixed precipitation over parts of the area on Monday, with the upper low progged to be over the Great Lakes by then. The GFS MOS highs on Sunday look too warm, given the expected precipitation. Will lower the guidance highs a category at that time. The rest of the guidance looks reasonable at this time, given progged low level thicknesses. && .LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/... Issued at 211 PM EST Fri Dec 27 2019 ECMWF shows deep low pressure in place across the Great Lakes allowing a nw flow of colder air into the region in the wake of a passed cold front. High pressure is then expected to build across Indiana for the middle of the next week resulting in dry weather for the start of the New Year. Rain and snow chances will return by Thursday and Friday as a stronger trough of low pressure aloft pushes into the western plains and an accompanying deep low pressure system is poised to push across Indiana on Friday. Tempertures still look to remain above normal through much of the extended period...but not as warm as the past few days. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 272100Z IND Tafs/... MVFR/IFR clouds continue to hang on. Dissipation is expected within the next few hours as high pressure continues to build across the area. This should result in a return VFR Cigs. Previous Discussion below /Discussion for the 271800Z Tafs/... Issued at 1249 PM EST Fri Dec 27 2019 MVFR conditions are expected to improve to VFR this afternoon. MVFR conditions are expected to return later tonight. High pressure in place over Illinois and Missouri will build across Indiana this afternoon. Lingering low clouds are expected to dissipate rather quickly this afternoon as time heights and forecast soundings show dry air and subsidence arriving this afternoon. Moisture and lower level clouds...MVFR Conditions...are expected to return on Saturday morning as a warm front will arrive in Central Indiana on the backside of high pressure departing the area. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JAS NEAR TERM...JAS SHORT TERM...JAS LONG TERM....Puma AVIATION...JP