177 FXUS63 KEAX 261727 AFDEAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1127 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2019 .Discussion... Issued at 312 AM CST THU DEC 26 2019 Primary forecast focus is cooler temperatures through Friday, heavy rain and thunderstorms likely on Saturday and light snow possible on Sunday. Key Messages... 1. Much cooler today with highs in 40s from Metro area north and 50s south of Metro area. 2. Showers and Thunderstorms likely on Saturday with heavy rain possible with 1 to 1.5 inches possible 3. Light snow or snow flurries possible Sunday from the Metro area northward. Discussion... Upper level ridge has moved east with a cold front bringing cooler temperatures today with some patchy morning fog and clouds. Temperatures will be in the 40s from the Metro area northward and 50s south of Metro area, still a good 10 degrees above normal for late December. Late Friday into Saturday a strong low pressure system will move across the area bringing warmer temperatures with showers and thunderstorms. PW's will be near record values at an inch or better with QPF in the 1 to 1.5 inch range possible across much of the area. This will lead to some pockets of heavy rain. CAPE values under 500 J/kg with dewpoints increasing to 40s and elevated mid- level lapse rates will support some thunderstorm activity across the area. No severe storms expected. As the low pressure moves north cold air will wrap around system on Sunday and bring colder air into area there will probably be enough moisture to support light snow or snow flurries from the Metro area northward. Not much snow accumulation expected at this time. && .Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 1126 AM CST THU DEC 26 2019 Fog and LIFR to IFR CIGs continue to prevail at the state line terminals as a cold front slowly shifts through the region. Expect the clouds to persist through the afternoon hours, clearing as they move east this evening. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ Discussion...Christensen Aviation...Cutter