254 FXUS61 KBGM 241922 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 222 PM EST Tue Dec 24 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will keep mild and clear weather over the area through Christmas. A weak front could bring light rain or pockets of freezing rain Thursday night into Friday morning. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Overall, a very quiet near term forecast period is expected, along with mild temperatures for this time of the year. The remainder of this afternoon will be mostly sunny with light northerly winds, as high pressure is situated north of the area in Canada. Hourly temperatures have been running a bit warmer than previously forecast, especially in Northeast PA. As a result, raised forecast high temperatures a bit for this afternoon. Expecting temperatures to top out in the upper 30s to mid 40s in Northeast PA and Sullivan County, NY, with mid 30s to lower 40s in Central New York. Then expecting partly cloudy skies in Central NY and mostly clear skies in NEPA tonight. As the high pressure system slides eastward by daybreak, light winds will shift to a more southerly direction. Lows tonight will likely fall to the mid teens to lower 20s from Oneida county southward into the Catskills and into the Poconos. Lower to upper 20s expected west of these areas. An upper level ridge building into the region along with the surface high pressure shifting eastward (resulting in a more southerly flow) will keep dry and mild conditions along with mostly sunny skies in place on Christmas Day. After a cool start, temperatures quickly rebound to the lower to upper 40s by the afternoon. A weak warm front will approach the area from the southwest throughout the day, resulting in slightly warmer temperatures across the extreme western portion of our area. Portions of Steuben and Yates counties may even get close to or reach 50 degrees. Clouds increase Wednesday night from northwest to southeast. Lows Wednesday night will likely mostly be in the mid 20s to lower 30s, with some mid 30s across the Finger Lakes and some lower 20s across portions of northern Oneida county. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A weak area of low pressure will be moving from the Upper Great Lakes across lower Ontario and Quebec during this period will reanimate a stationary frontal boundary draped across our region Thursday afternoon, with a trailing cold front sweeping through on Friday. With high pressure retreating off the east coast Thursday night, surface temperatures and vertical thermal profiles suggest enough cooling over the eastern and northern forecast zones for some light mixed precipitation. The QPF forecasts are generally less than one-tenth of an inch, thus this appears to be a high PoP event for minimal sensible weather return. Any ice glaze, or snow/sleet accumulation looks nominal. Generally just rain showers are expected during the day Friday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure with cooler, but still above normal air, arrives on Saturday bringing dry weather. A major storm remains on the horizon moving into the western Great Lakes by Sunday. This will push a deep flow of warm and moist air into the area by Sunday afternoon into Monday, and a good soaker in excess of an inch of precipitation seems likely. Nudged up PoPs just a tad as models are in good agreement that there will be a precipitation event in the Sun-Mon time frame. Specific timing amongst the GFS/ECMWF and GGEM models continues to show a significant spread leading to uncertainty with p-type details. Given the temperatures in the deep southerly flow, this looks to be mainly a rain event on the front side, with cold airi and the best chance for snow occurring after a strong cold front races through on Monday with a noticeable drop in temperatures. Tuesday looks colder with weak upper level disturbances triggering scattered flurries and areas of lake effect snow showers. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions with just some scattered high level cirrus clouds are expected at all terminals through this TAF period as high pressure will be in control. Northerly winds at less than 10 knots are expected this afternoon, turning easterly this evening, southeast overnight, then more southerly by late morning/early afternoon Wednesday (still less than 10 kts). Outlook... Wednesday afternoon through Thursday...VFR conditions expected. Thursday night and Friday...Some restrictions possible in potential light rain, sleet or freezing rain; mainly CNY. Saturday...VFR expected. Sunday...Some restrictions possible in potential rain and snow showers. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJG NEAR TERM...BJG SHORT TERM...JAB LONG TERM...DGM/JAB AVIATION...BJG