821 
FXUS63 KOAX 240553
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1153 PM CST Mon Dec 23 2019

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CST Mon Dec 23 2019

Today and Tomorrow:
Visible satellite imagery shows high scattered cirrus clouds
across Nebraska and western Iowa. Temperatures have warmed above 
50 in many places and locations such as Falls City and Beatrice 
might get to 60. Overnight, fog could be a concern in far 
southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa where dewpoints are 
currently at or near 40F. However, the upper level ridge will move
farther east and cloud cover is expected to begin to increase. 
Combine that with a tighter pressure gradient and slightly 
stronger winds, and fog would be unlikely. Tomorrow, increased 
cloud cover and a weak cold front passing through the area will 
lead to slightly cooler temperatures than today. 

Christmas Day:
The first real forecast concern for the period will be the
possibility of precipitation Christmas morning. An analysis of
upper levels winds shows that the trough off the west coast has
reached maturity. This closed low will be absorbed into the
southwest flow and the remnants of that system could lead to 
precipitation across eastern Nebraska. A few models (GFS, 
Canadian, NAM) are in relatively good agreement about 
precipitation placement in northeastern Nebraska. Forcing appears 
to be weak and any precipitation (drizzle, flurries) would be on 
the light side. Freezing drizzle is in the realm of possibility 
and could lead to some slick spots Christmas morning.

Thursday through Sunday:
Temperatures will slightly cool Thursday through Sunday with
temperatures nearing the climatic normal. The next forecast
concern is the possibility of a strong system over the weekend. As
is common, long term models offer differing solutions for the
system. What there seems to be agreement in is that there will be
a closed off low at the 500mb level over the southwest US.
Complicating the forecast is a northern trough that moves south
from Canada into the Plains. The GFS solution is much faster and
has the two systems merging and strengthening with a 
precipitation maximum over Nebraska. The Euro solution is slightly
slower and has the northern system clipping eastern Nebraska 
while the closed off low in the southwest stays south of the area.
The situation will required closer monitoring.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1145 PM CST Mon Dec 23 2019

VFR conditions are forecast through much of the period. MVFR
conditions are expected to spread into KOFK allow pressure
develops over eastern colorado and low level moisture lifts north
of a warm front over northeastern Nebraska, creating low clouds.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fajman
AVIATION...Smith