471 FXUS61 KBGM 240255 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 955 PM EST Mon Dec 23 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Except for an isolate flurry tonight, high pressure will keep mild and clear weather over NY and PA through the Christmas holiday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... 955 pm update... Temperatures have cooled quickly into the upper 20s in the valley locations this evening due to an abundance of clear skies and calm winds from the boundary layer decoupling. Low clouds starting to move in from the north as well...so some adjustments have been made to the sky cover forecast and overnight temperatures. No major changes made. 230 PM update... After a very mild day, a cold front with limited moisture will drop across Upstate NY into PA overnight. The NAMNest depicts scattered rain and snow showers forming along the front, but this appears overdone given the shallow atmospheric moisture. We added a slight chance for a brief sprinkle or flurry as the front moves through. The front will return north on Tuesday, allowing skies to partially clear as temperatures recover into the upper 30s. Continued quiet weather is expected Tuesday night. Temperatures will fall into the lower 20s. 1110 AM update... The forecast remains in good shape heading toward the afternoon hours. We did a minor temperature update, but still expect the valleys to push 50 degrees along the I-81 corridor. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... An upper level ridge building into the region along with high pressure at the surface will keep dry and mild conditions in place on Christmas Day. After a cool start, temperatures quickly rebound to the lower to upper 40s by the afternoon. A few locations across western portions of our area (mainly Steuben and Yates counties) may even get close to 50 degrees. It will be a partly to mostly sunny day. Clouds increase Wednesday night from northwest to southeast. Lows Wednesday night will likely mostly be in the mid 20s to lower 30s, with some mid 30s across the Finger Lakes and some lower 20s across portions of northern Oneida county. Thursday will likely be mostly cloudy as a weak warm front approaches from the west. A few light showers are possible late in the day in Central New York, but the majority of the area will likely remain dry. Highs will likely be in the upper 30s to the mid 40s. A warm frontal boundary associated with a weak low pressure system moving across the northern Great Lakes will bring a chance for rain or a light wintry mix to the area Thursday night into Friday. Best chance for a wintry mix looks to be in the eastern portion of the forecast area, from Oneida County southward into the Catskills and into the Poconos. The rest of the area looks to be mainly rain at this time. Low temperatures Thursday night are forecast to range from the upper 20s to lower 30s along and east of I-81, with mid to upper 30s west. The light rain or mixed showers should exit east of the area by Friday afternoon or early evening. Highs on Friday will likely be mainly in the 40s, with mid to upper 30s in the Catskills and Poconos. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 330 PM Update... The long term forecast remains on track and minimal changes were made to the forecast. Main change was to update POPs this weekend to be in better collaboration with our neighboring offices. Still looks like quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the track and timing of the next low pressure system. Previous Discussion: A weak area of high pressure moves in Friday night into Saturday bringing a period of dry weather. More uncertainty has entered the forecast for the weekend, with lower than normal confidence. The latest GFS still tracks a well developed low pressure system west of here, into the central Great Lakes, meanwhile the latest 00z ECMWF leaves the upper level energy behind across the Southern Plains, with just a northern stream clipper type system passing through our area on Sunday. The NBM seemed to be favoring a solution closer to the operational GFS at this time. Went with the latest model blend for now. Considering this, we'll likely see some periods of rain Saturday night into Sunday. However, some snow or mixed precip is possible if the colder solutions verify (especially north/east of Binghamton). Be sure to check back for the latest forecast updates; especially if you have travel plans. No real change in temperatures Friday night through Sunday. Look for highs in the upper 30s to mid-40s and overnight lows mainly in the lower to mid-30s...except possible 20s for our northeastern zones. Generally still well above average by 10-15 degrees. A slight cool down Sunday night into Monday; with lows in the 20s and highs in the low to mid-30s for most. Some lake effect flurries or snow showers also possible in a northwest flow. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions continue so far tonight, but as a cold front moves southward through central NY, ceilings drop to MVFR and fuel alternate with a deck of clouds at around 1500 to 2500 ft. Flurries or light drizzle cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, VFR continues at AVP. Ceilings lift Tuesday morning, allowing for VFR conditions for the rest of the forecast period as skies start to turn sunny especially along and south of the NY/PA border. Outlook... Tuesday afternoon through Thursday...Generally VFR conditions expected. May see some overnight/early morning fog late Tuesday night through Wednesday with some restrictions. Friday...Some restrictions possible in potential rain/snow showers. Saturday...Restrictions possible in lake effect rain/snow showers across RME and SYR. Otherwise mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJP NEAR TERM...BJT/DJP SHORT TERM...BJG LONG TERM...BJG/MJM AVIATION...DJP/HLC