980 FXUS61 KBGM 230540 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1240 AM EST Mon Dec 23 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will bring warmer conditions through Monday, along with mostly sunny skies. Very quiet and dry weather is expected through Christmas. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 1130 pm update... A wide range of temperatures again. Hilltops and Finger Lakes remain in the 30s while some valleys have fallen to around 20. Adjusted hourly and min temperatures down. 930 PM Update... The forecast largely remains on track tonight, with the only real changes being minor adjustments to temperatures. Temperatures are still coming in a little bit warmer than forecast, so overnight lows have been bumped up by a degree or so to account for this slower dropoff. Temperatures have also been adjusted upward slightly for Monday afternoon and evening to account for a warmer trend in guidance. Otherwise, still looking like a dry and quiet period, with only a slight chance for a few flurries or drizzle Monday night as a cold front passes through. Previous discussion continues below. Overall, a very quiet near term period is in store with milder temperatures. High pressure remains in place over the Mid-Atlantic states. A southwesterly flow has led to a milder day today with highs mainly topping out in the lower to mid 40s. Tonight's lows will likely be in the mid 20s to mid 30s, which is higher than most high temperatures have been recently. A very mild day for late December standards is in store for Monday with highs likely topping out in the mid 40s to lower 50s as a southwesterly flow continues. These relatively warm temperatures along with dew points in the mid 30s will allow for much of the remaining snowpack to melt. A moisture-starved cold front will move through the area Monday night. Therefore, clouds will be increasing throughout the night, but the area should remain dry. Lows will likely mostly be in the mid 20s to lower 30s, with some upper teens possible in northern Oneida county. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... An elongated area of high pressure will track beneath an upper atmospheric ridge Tuesday through Wednesday night. The result will be clear weather for holiday travelers and mild temperatures. On Tuesday, temperatures will climb into the upper 30s and lower 40s along the Twin Tiers of NY and PA. Christmas Day could be even milder with readings between 40 and 45 degrees along and west of I-81. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Another dry day on Thursday as yet another upper level ridge moves overhead. Mid and high level clouds are likely as a weak warm front approaches from the west through the day. Forecasts is leaning toward mostly cloudy skies but still mild with highs in the mid-30s to lower 40s A warm frontal boundary associated with a weak low pressure system moving across the northern Great Lakes will bring chances for rain or mixed showers to the area Thursday night into Friday. Precipitation amounts are forecast to be rather light from this system (under 0.25"). The mixed showers should exit east of the area by Friday evening. Then, another weak area of high pressure moves in Friday night into next Saturday. the next, more substantial storm system will move into the central Great Lakes by Saturday night or Sunday. With the storm likely tracking well west of the area, we will see a warming southerly flow...and likely some periods of rain. However, some snow or mixed precip is possible if the colder solutions (such as the 00z ECMWF) verify. For now, used a blend of the latest guidance. No real change in temperatures Friday through Sunday. Look for highs in the upper 30s to mid-40s and overnight lows mainly in the low to mid-30s...except possible 20s for our northeastern zones. Generally still well above average by 10-15 degrees. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 1230 am update... VFR conditions continue today then MVFR cigs come in from the north starting at RME at 00z then progressing to ELM/BGM at 03z. Ceilings could continue to fall to fuel alternate and maybe IFR after 06z. South to southwest winds at 5 kts or less this morning. This afternoon winds shift to west at 5 to 10 kts. Tonight northwest winds at 5 to 10 kts. This morning a low level jet at 30 to 40 kts at 2k feet will provide low level wind shear. Outlook... Monday overnight...MVFR and maybe IFR cigs all sites with cold front. Tuesday through Thursday...Generally VFR conditions expected. May see some overnight/early morning fog late Tuesday night through Wednesday with some restrictions. Friday...Some restrictions possible in potential rain/snow showers. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJG/TAC NEAR TERM...BJG/HLC/TAC SHORT TERM...DJP LONG TERM...MJM AVIATION...TAC