032 FXUS63 KICT 230013 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 613 PM CST Sun Dec 22 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 343 PM CST Sun Dec 22 2019 A quiet evening is in store across the area as Areas of dense fog appear likely again develop overnight and continue through tomorrow morning, with very low visibility possible at times. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued across southeast KS, which is where the greatest confidence for dense dog development is. That said, RAP soundings indicate the moisture profile is much shallower than what was realized today. This would bring a small amount of uncertainty in both the extent and the duration of any dense fog areas that develop. However, the HREF which has performed quite well over the last couple of days hits southeast KS and small areas of east central and south central KS rather hard. Confidence was not high enough to warrant the advisory further north and west, but can certainly be expanded if needed. High temperatures tomorrow continue to be a challenge as the extent/duration of fog/cloud cover across the area will dictate how much warming occurs throughout the day tomorrow. Went ahead and cooled the highs tomorrow given the continued confidence in another round of low clouds and fog developing, particularly over portions of southeast KS. As the previous forecaster discussed, model guidance is quite uncertain indicating highs across the area of near 40 or as high as the low 60s for areas that don't see fog or clear out quickly. Went on the cooler side, yet warmer than what was reached today, as a shallower moisture profile should allow clearing a little quicker than today. However that still keeps southeast KS in the low 50s. Upper ridging along with southerly sfc flow will continue for the next couple of days. A ripple in the 700mb will flow will glide through the area Wednesday into Thursday which will help push a weak cool frontal boundary through the area however with very limited moisture, the Christmas Holiday still looks to be dry, albeit can't completely rule out a stay rain drop/snowflake. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 343 PM CST Sun Dec 22 2019 A closed mid level low is progged to develop and plunge south along the West Coast and will move through the dessert Southwest late next week, bringing widespread precipitation to the area. There remains some decent disagreements in timing and forward progression of this feature which will impact precip type and amounts. However at this time the bulk of the event looks like a rain event. Changes to the forecast are likely in the extended, with many days left for models to work on this system. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 613 PM CST Sun Dec 22 2019 Forecast Concern (Major): Potential for (+)FG remains high early- mid Mon morning. Most facets of the airmass are essentially unchanged from the past 2 days/nights, but there is 1 difference: A DEEP upper-deck trough that this evening is situated from the OR Coast to about 300NM off the CA Coast is ejecting an extensive CS veil ENE across the Srn & C Rockies. The CS will play the role in all facets of (+)FG development & duration. For now am 'air'ing on the side of caution by keeping (+)FG assigned to KCNU with IFR vsbys likely at KICT from about 08Z-14Z. The duration will definitely be watched as the (+)FG has persisted to almost 18Z the past 2 days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 32 57 36 61 / 0 0 0 0 Hutchinson 30 57 34 60 / 0 0 0 0 Newton 34 57 37 60 / 0 0 0 0 ElDorado 33 57 38 61 / 0 0 0 0 Winfield-KWLD 33 58 38 62 / 0 0 0 0 Russell 29 62 31 57 / 0 0 0 0 Great Bend 29 63 32 60 / 0 0 0 0 Salina 31 57 34 59 / 0 0 0 0 McPherson 31 57 34 59 / 0 0 0 0 Coffeyville 32 54 37 62 / 0 0 0 0 Chanute 33 53 37 61 / 0 0 0 0 Iola 33 53 37 61 / 0 0 0 0 Parsons-KPPF 32 54 37 61 / 0 0 0 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CST Monday for KSZ070>072-094>096-098>100. && $$ SHORT TERM...KMB LONG TERM...KMB AVIATION...EPS