534 
FXUS61 KCLE 210810
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
310 AM EST Sat Dec 21 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure stretching from western Quebec through the central
Appalachians will remain over the eastern United States through
the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A quiet weekend weather-wise across the area, with cirrus and
some mid level cloud cover pushing east across the area this
morning ahead of a weakening shortwave. Skies will generally
clear from west to east through mid/late afternoon. Highs will
be in the low to mid 40s, with the current forecast near the
consensus of MOS guidance. Lows tonight will be in the mid 20s
to near 30. High pressure remains in control Sunday with highs
in the 40s, perhaps a degree or two warmer than today. Some low
level cloud cover could sneak northeast into northwest OH early
Sunday, otherwise skies should be mostly clear.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The short term begins Sunday night with models showing deep low 
pressure across the Gulf Coast states moving east.  High pressure 
will extend from the New Jersey Delaware region west across Ohio to 
Missouri and Texas.  The high will weaken slowly across the Ohio 
valley Monday allowing a cold front to our north to drift southeast 
across the Great Lakes into northern Ohio and PA by Tuesday morning. 
Models however continue to depict very dry air across the area so 
will bring the front in dry. Monday night and Tuesday, weak low 
pressure will move into the western lakes eventually lifting the 
front north of the region as a warm front late Tuesday or Tuesday 
night. Highs should be mild with mid and upper 40s common both
days.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Wednesday models differ a bit and will follow closer to the ECMWF 
which has low pressure tracking east out of the Central Plains into 
the lower Ohio Valley on Thursday.  A warm front will be across 
northern Ohio ahead of the low.  A trailing cold front will sweep 
east across the area Thursday night. Will have slight chance pops 
for the eastern half of the area continuing into Friday.  Highs will 
remain mild with highs in the 40s through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
VFR conditions will dominate the period, aside from some MVFR BR
at KFDY and KTOL at the onset of the period. Cirrus
overspreading the region early this morning due to the passage 
of a shortwave trough will clear from west to east later this 
morning through midday. Mostly clear skies will then prevail 
through the end of the period. Light south/southeast winds will 
become more southwesterly later today through the end of the 
period.

.OUTLOOK...Non-VFR BR/stratus possible Saturday night into
Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will drift to our east and southeast driving southwest 
flow across the lake today through Sunday at 10 to 20 knots. Waves 
could get into the 2 to 4 foot range away from shore on Sunday east 
of Geneva but for the most part expect conditions to remain below 
small craft advisory criteria.  From Sunday night through Wednesday, 
winds will remain below 15 knots and waves below 2 feet with high 
pressure dominating weather across the lake.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Greenawalt
NEAR TERM...Greenawalt
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...Greenawalt
MARINE...TK