884 FXUS63 KDVN 202110 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 310 PM CST Fri Dec 20 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 254 PM CST Fri Dec 20 2019 Split flow pattern aloft and low level southerly flow resulting in dry and mild conditions this afternoon. GOES-16 satellite shows we've melted a good portion of the snow south, but still a couple of bands exist... one roughly 20 miles wide centered near a Keosauqua to Mediapolis to New Windsor line, and the other into our far southeast including the Good Hope, Macomb and Carthage areas extending further south into central IL and eastern MO. Temperatures as a result were being held down around 40 or in the lower 40s in these snow covered areas and areas immediately downwind. Elsewhere though with ample sunshine temperatures have climbed into the mid/upper 40s with even a few spots west near 50 degrees. The warmth looks to only increase in the days ahead leading up to Christmas, as an upper level ridge amplifies over the central CONUS. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday) ISSUED AT 254 PM CST Fri Dec 20 2019 Skies will clear out this evening in the wake of a passing upper level disturbance. Similar to yesterday the guidance once again is very aggressive with fog and low clouds, but staying more optimistic on both given lack of strong moisture advection and fairly large surface temp-dewpoint depressions outpacing some of the aggressive guidance. Still, with radiational cooling have added patchy fog mention over.. and immediately downwind.. of the residual snow cover. Lows tonight generally widespread 20s. Pushed highs up Saturday with idea of abundant sunshine, and have highs generally upper 40s to lower 50s most of the area. .LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday) ISSUED AT 254 PM CST Fri Dec 20 2019 The dry conditions and continued warming trend expected leading up to Christmas, as an upper level ridge amplifies over the central CONUS. Model blended temperatures appear too low (especially highs) during much of this time frame per model certainty tool, and progged thermal parameters and verification. Therefore have gone above the guidance blend by a category or so in general mostly for highs which introduce more widespread 50s in time. Pending sky cover this pattern (upper level ridge and SSW low level flow) is ripe for temperatures to over perform. And, as mentioned yesterday includes some potential to be within shouting distance of records by the time we get to Monday and possibly even on Tuesday/Christmas Eve, as progged 850 mb temperatures are near warmest on record for December at DVN (14.6C in 1998). Please refer to Climate section below for record high information through Christmas Eve. GFS and ECMWF suggest a light precipitation event (mostly light rain/drizzle) for our area may occur on or around Thursday. Then there remains the potential for a stronger system late next week into next weekend, but considerable uncertainty remains on track/strength and precipitation type/amounts. Something to monitor for the post Christmas travelers. Temperatures will cool a bit after Christmas, but should still be at if not a bit above normal, possibly right up until the end of the year. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon) ISSUED AT 941 AM CST Fri Dec 20 2019 VFR conditions anticipated to largely dominate the TAF cycle with decreasing mid/high cloudiness late today through this evening. Several models bullish again tonight into Saturday morning with stratus and fog and IFR or lower conditions, but seeing how that didn't verify this morning and given absence of strong moisture advection, I stayed optimistic with only mention of light MVFR fog at BRL where snow cover still lingers. && .CLIMATE... ISSUED AT 154 PM CST Fri Dec 20 2019 Record Highs for December 21... Moline.........63 in 1877 Cedar Rapids...57 in 1967 and previous Dubuque........61 in 1877 Burlington.....62 in 1967 Record Highs for December 22... Moline.........58 in 1933 Cedar Rapids...59 in 1933 Dubuque........56 in 1877 and previous Burlington.....62 in 1933 Record Highs for December 23... Moline.........59 in 1982 Cedar Rapids...56 in 1965 Dubuque........58 in 1888 and previous Burlington.....64 in 1933 Record Highs for December 24... Moline.........65 in 1889 Cedar Rapids...58 in 1893 Dubuque........67 in 1889 Burlington.....61 in 1955 && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...McClure SHORT TERM...McClure LONG TERM...McClure AVIATION...McClure CLIMATE...McClure