787 
FXUS63 KTOP 202058
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
258 PM CST Fri Dec 20 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 255 PM CST Fri Dec 20 2019

The upper level pattern shows an area of low pressure spinning over 
the western Red River Valley this afternoon. Cloud cover associated 
with the moisture ahead of that system has moved out of the area, so 
we are left with mainly clear conditions as we head into the evening 
period. Forecast soundings depict a fairly dry profile through this 
evening and tonight. However, patchy fog could develop early 
tomorrow morning given moist grounds from snow melt, nearly calm 
wind speeds and dewpoint depressions of just a few degrees at the 
surface. Fog is not currently expected to be dense or widespread, 
but more likely just shallow and scattered in nature. Any fog that 
does develop will dissipate once temps begin warming tomorrow 
morning. 

Tomorrow marks the northern hemisphere's winter solstice -- the 
astronomical start of the winter season. While this is not the 
coldest time of the year climatologically (that happens in early 
January), it is the day with the least amount of sunlight. Daylight 
hours will begin increasing shortly after the solstice, albeit 
slowly at first. For us, it should be a nice start to the season 
with temperatures about 10 to 15 degrees above average in the low 
and mid 50s. Winds should remain fairly light and skies will be 
mainly sunny.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 255 PM CST Fri Dec 20 2019

An upper-level ridge builds into the area for the weekend ahead of a 
deepening upper trough over the western CONUS. Southerly surface 
winds and clear skies should allow temperatures to climb to near 60 
degrees on Sunday and Monday.

The next system approaches for the middle of next week as a 
shortwave ejects across the central CONUS. Models continue to be 
inconsistent in regards to the precipitation associated with this 
wave; recent runs of the GFS and ECMWF are drier with little to no 
precipitation for the CWA on Christmas morning. With uncertainty 
persisting, have maintained low POPs on Wednesday morning. There is 
even more uncertainty with how the mean trough over the western 
CONUS will evolve towards the end of next week though temperatures 
look to be cooler.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1113 AM CST Fri Dec 20 2019

VFR conditions continue through the first part of the TAF period.
Clear skies and calm winds bring the potential for ground fog to 
develop early tomorrow morning. Have mentioned the fog potential,
but any fog that does develop looks to be patchy.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Teefey
LONG TERM...Flanagan/Teefey
AVIATION...Flanagan/Teefey