212 FXUS62 KMLB 201055 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 555 AM EST Fri Dec 20 2019 .DISCUSSION... ...Dangerous Boating and Beach Conditions Will Continue Through This Weekend and Into Early Next Week... ...Gulf of Mexico Storm System Will Bring Threats For Locally Heavy Rainfall and Strong to Severe Storms This Weekend... Today/tonight...High pressure over the Carolinas will remain nearly stationary and elongate into New England. A persistent northeast to east flow will be across the forecast area with a gradual moistening of the lower levels. A significant gradient in pcp water exists across the state from north to south with less than 1/2 inch values over north FL to about 1.75 over far south FL. The steady onshore flow will continue to moisten up the lower levels under a pronounced cap near H85. Stratocumulus will move onshore in increasing amounts through the day with shower coverage increasing later today and tonight across the coastal counties with much of the activity dissipating trying to move inland. Winds will further increase across coastal counties with the diurnal cycle and will issue lake wind advisories for this area. The persist wind and ocean swell run-up will keep the threat for active rip currents today. Saturday-Monday...Well-advertised cutoff H50 low will drop SE from OK/TX to near NOLA by early Sun Evening, then pivot eastward across the NE Gulf Coast and NOFL, reaching the adjacent Atlantic sometime between Mon evening and sunrise Tue. The system remains vertically stacked, with the surface low reaching offshore GA/SC at that time, generally remaining on the NE side of the H50 feature. Timing differences in the forward speed of the system remain, with the faster GFS trending on top of the compromise CMC, which are both now about 12h faster than the ECM. At the surface. the 2-day trend has been toward a singular surface low, with little if any secondary development across Florida. This allows the warm front/sector to spread farther north over the peninsula. In turn, this would push the highest rainfall totals a bit farther north into NOFL Sun, while increasing the threat for a more organized convective band out ahead of the trailing occlusion due to greater instability and continued favorable winds/shear. 48h areal averaged QPF has dropped a tad from 2-4" to 1.5-3.0", and the marginal WPC excessive rainfall outlook for days 2-3 have been nudged just a bit farther north compared to Thu. Additionally, the latest SPC SWODY3 outlook for Sunday now shows a Marginal risk for severe storms/isolated tornadoes for the Treasure Coast and Lake Okeechobee region, which could be nudged farther north as well. The overall forecast han't been changed all that much compared to yesterday. POPs were nudged down slightly for Sat night, remain highest (90 pct) on Sun, and are a little higher (60-70 pct) for early Mon to account for the overall slowing of the model consensus. Tuesday-Friday...The deep layer low either near or east of the ECFL and SE CONUS Coast Tue morning will drift slowly eastward amd well away from FL by Wed, with high pressure building north of FL from mid to late next week. W-NW flow will shift to N-NE through Tue night and Wed, then slacken by Thu. Only premise for precip would be isolated low topped marine showers moving onshore through the period. Below normal temps on Tue will moderate to near normal from the middle to end of the week. && .AVIATION...Winds will continue to veer to mainly ENE by morning. Mainly VFR conditions expected with ocnl stratocu moving in off the Atlantic waters into coastal locations. BKN VFR cigs with only low coverage of showers until low levels moisten further in later portion of fcst period. && .MARINE...Today/Tonight...XMR profiler shows a steady 25 knot wind through 4 kft. Buoy observations have been 22 to 25 knots with few gusts to 30 knots. Both GFS and ECM consistent in showing about 3-4 mb of gradient across our marine area with no additional tightening over the next 36 hours. Will opt to pull back from Gale warning and go with a healthy SCA across all coastal waters. Saturday-Tuesday...Hazardous sea and surf conditions associated first with the strong high to the north and then the GOMEX storm approaching and then moving across the local waters will continue throughout the weekend, and likely into the early work week. Hence the SCA/HSA have been extended through 7 AM Mon. Winds will remain in the 20-25KT range for the most part, outside of a possible brief lull immediately behind the occluded FROPA, which results in winds veering to offshore. Seas building to 6-9FT near shore and as high as 10-13FT well offshore by Sunday. Winds and seas will be slow to subside late Mon-Tue as the storm system pulls east away from FL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 72 62 72 67 / 30 30 30 90 MCO 74 61 74 65 / 20 20 20 80 MLB 73 66 74 70 / 30 30 30 80 VRB 75 66 75 70 / 30 40 30 80 LEE 72 58 74 64 / 10 20 20 90 SFB 74 60 74 64 / 20 20 20 80 ORL 73 61 74 65 / 20 20 20 80 FPR 74 66 75 70 / 30 40 30 70 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Coastal Volusia-Indian River-Martin-Northern Brevard-Southern Brevard-St. Lucie. High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for Coastal Volusia- Indian River-Martin-Northern Brevard-Southern Brevard-St. Lucie. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20- 60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Blottman LONG TERM/DSS...Cristaldi