927 
FXUS64 KLCH 200942
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
342 AM CST Fri Dec 20 2019

.DISCUSSION...

A shortwave trough at 500 hPa currently centered over the Great
Continental Divide will dig east southeastward and form a closed
upper level low later today. This upper low will track along the 
northern Gulf Coast and provide upper level support for showers 
throughout the weekend. The weekend won't be a washout as PWATs
are expected to remain below the 75th percentile of climatology
for December and the best surface lift is expected from south and
east of the area. However, there will be chances for showers 
throughout the entire weekend with the greatest chances for 
precipitation across south-central and southeastern Louisiana. 

Model consensus continues to have the upper low moving east of the
region by Monday and upper level ridge axis and associated 
surface high pressure building over the region during the first 
half of next week. This will result in dry conditions and 
temperatures climbing into the 60s and low 70s by Christmas Day.

By late next week, there is the potential for an upper level
trough to be approaching the region. However, there is
considerable phase and amplitude uncertainty in how the model
guidance is handling this upper trough. Therefore, the end of the
forecast period consists of NBM guidance with slight chances for 
precipitation and continued above normal temperatures. 

&&

.MARINE...

East to northeast winds will increase this afternoon ahead of
an approaching upper level low. This will result in SCEC/Small
Craft Advisory conditions over the coastal waters east of Cameron.
The upper level low will move over the northern Gulf resulting in
chances for showers during the weekend. Moderate offshore winds 
will develop in the wake of this system Saturday afternoon and 
continue through Monday resulting in continued periods of at least
SCEC conditions. Winds and seas will subside after Monday as 
another area of high pressure settles over the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  57  40  56  38 /   0  10  20  30 
LCH  59  44  58  42 /   0  10  20  20 
LFT  59  45  58  43 /   0  40  30  30 
BPT  59  45  58  41 /   0  10  20  20 

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Saturday 
     for GMZ475.

     Small Craft Exercise Caution from this evening through Saturday 
     morning for GMZ455-472.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...26