124 FXUS63 KTOP 200909 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 309 AM CST Fri Dec 20 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 309 AM CST Fri Dec 20 2019 High clouds continue to stream north-northeast downstream of an upper low over northern New Mexico. In the lower levels, another night of a strong low-level jet exists with some gustiness especially in higher elevations, and combining with the high clouds for a mild mid-December night. Moderate west winds were noted over eastern Colorado and western Nebraska behind a continental cold front. The extent of the remaining snow pack was not easy to discern under this cloud. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 309 AM CST Fri Dec 20 2019 High clouds should persist for much of the day as the upper trough pushes east along the Red River and a northern branch upper trough scoots east over the northern Plains. Winds remain southerly but should be modest for the bulk of the day. Mixing depths look to remain modest as well however and the remaining snow will have some impact on temps. Have leaned on the warmer side of guidance however given the south wind and warm start. As the upper low works east across Oklahoma tonight, cloud cover should diminish with a very weak surface pressure gradient in place. A decent radiational fog scenario will be present with additional surface moisture from snow melt. Have included patchy fog for much of the area tonight into Saturday morning but adjustments in this forecast parameter will likely be needed as the specifics become clearer. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 309 AM CST Fri Dec 20 2019 Upper heights rise over the central Plains through the weekend with the upper low slowly working its way across the southeast states as an upper trough deepens along the west coast. Mainly clear skies and the return of southerly surface flow should spell continued warming with temperatures perhaps nearing 60 degrees by Monday afternoon. Uncertainty increases for the remaining periods. A modest cold front pushes southeast into the area around Tuesday while a weakening wave is ejected northeast across the central CONUS. Models have been anything but consistent with precipitation with this wave though there appears to be a strong enough signal for some mention of precipitation for at least northwestern locations around Christmas morning. Behavior of the mean western trough is even less certain by Thursday but cooler temperatures do seem likely. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1123 PM CST Thu Dec 19 2019 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. LLWS conditions will persist through 14-15Z. Southerly winds should remain 5-11 kts through the night, although occasional gusts up to 20 kts are possible. Otherwise, gusts should subside after sunrise with winds becoming light and variable by mid-afternoon. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...65 SHORT TERM...65 LONG TERM...65 AVIATION...Baerg