441 FXUS61 KBTV 200830 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 330 AM EST Fri Dec 20 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Surface high pressure extending from northern Ontario southward into western New York will serve as our controlling weather feature over the next several days. Cold temperatures will persist today and tonight, but will be accompanied by lighter wind speeds across the North Country. As the high pressure shifts east of our longitude Saturday and Sunday, temperatures will begin to moderate. By Monday, valley highs in the low to mid 40s are expected. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 328 AM EST Friday...A chilly start areawide this AM. That said, there is a wide range in temperatures across the North Country early this morning. Corridor of clear skies, light winds, and fresh snow cover has maximized radiative cooling across St. Lawrence and Franklin NY counties. Seeing 08Z temperatures anywhere from -13F at Saranac Lake to -18F at Star Lake. Meanwhile, we continue to deal with lingering stratus across central/nrn VT early this morning per GOES-16 imagery. These clouds have kept temperatures generally zero to 5 above across much of central/nrn VT, but locally 0 to 10 below across Rutland county where skies are clear. Winds aren't much of a factor, but will allow the Wind Chill Advisory to continue given very cold temperatures thru 14Z. Anticipate a gradual erosion of low clouds across n-central and nern VT today as surface ridge gradually shifts eastward from western NY. Despite mostly sunny conditions, not much moderation in daytime temps with afternoon highs mainly in the teens. Winds will resume from the NW after sunrise, but weaker gradient flow should keep speeds lighter, generally 5-9 mph. With ridge of sfc high pressure (1040mb) cresting across the North Country tonight with mainly clear skies, believe we'll see a similar situation where most of the guidance isn't cold enough on the overnight lows. Have undercut the MOS consensus by several degrees. Should see readings -10F to -15F in the normally colder spots within the northern Adirondacks and across Vermont's Northeast Kingdom (where clouds should be less likely for tonight). South winds develop on wrn periphery of ridge on Saturday. Moderating temperatures should begin with highs on Saturday 24-29F. May see a brief flurry across n-central into nern VT early this morning from shallow stratus layer, but otherwise PoPs NIL through the near-term period. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 303 AM EST Friday...No real changes to the forecast with only a chance for some flurries during the overnight hours Saturday into Sunday morning as low pressure passes well to our north. As trailing trough axis approaches the North Country moisture picked up from the northern Great Lakes will bring an increase in cloudiness and chance for scattered snow flurries across our northern zones. Overnight temperatures will be nondiurnal as southerly winds increase after midnight. Lows Saturday night will generally be in the upper teens to mid 20s and should be achieved before midnight, except for eastern Vermont which should remain decoupled and relatively cloud free and see readings in the low to mid teens. High temperatures on Sunday warm into the mid to upper 30s under partly to mostly cloudy skies. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 303 AM EST Friday...Dry weather is the theme for the extended forecast with main target of opportunity a temperature forecast. Heights aloft build Monday as 925mb temperatures warm to around 4-5 C. Sounding profiles indicate limited mixing potential with strong subsidence inversion overhead. Have leaned towards MOS guidance for highs on Monday generally in the upper 30s to low 40s. A dry cold front moves through on Tuesday with 925mb temperatures dropping to -7 C. This will cool temperatures closer to seasonable norms, however still above average for this time of year, into the low to mid 30s. A slow cool down will begin Wednesday into Thursday as north winds advect in cooler Canadian air from 1035mb high stationed just east of the southern tip of Hudson Bay. By Thursday, high temperatures will be back near seasonable norms in mid to upper 20s. Overall, weather remains quiet through entire period with almost nil chances for precipitation through late next week. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 12Z Saturday...High pressure will bring generally fair, VFR conditions to the North Country TAF sites through 12Z Saturday. May see just FEW-SCT014-020 at MPV/SLK associated with mountain cloudiness early this morning, before trending SKC for the daylight hours. Appears cirrus clouds will increase from the west overnight, with SCT-BKN200-250 during Friday night. No significant winds expected during the period. Light and variable conditions early this morning will trend N-NW at 5-8kt for the daylight period, and then light and variable again tonight as sfc high pressure crests over Vermont and northern New York. Outlook... Saturday - Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for VTZ004. NY...Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for NYZ029>031- 034. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Banacos SHORT TERM...LaRocca LONG TERM...LaRocca AVIATION...Banacos