806 FXUS62 KMHX 200055 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 755 PM EST Thu Dec 19 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Cold and dry high pressure will build over the area through Friday. A complex coastal storm is possible late this weekend into early next week. High pressure will build over the area mid next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 730 PM...Current forecast in excellent shape. The overall idea of lower 20s inland to lower 30s along the Outer Banks looks great. We made a few adjustments in our traditionally colder spots to lower them into the upper teens (near Catfish Lake, Open Ground Farms, near Pungo and Phelps Lake). The RAWS site near at Pocosin Lakes is already down to 25. GOES 16 Land surface (skin) temperature estimates look decent with multiple known excellent radiational cooling spots already in the lower to middle 20s! For the non cold weather fans tonight is likely the coldest weather for the rest of 2019. Previous AFD is below. As of 3 PM Thu...Cold and extremely dry high pressure (PW < 0.10 in) will be overhead with winds becoming calm tonight under clr skies. This will allow for great radiational cooling across the area. Temperatures are going to drop quickly tonight after sunset, and expecting overnight lows ranging 20-25 (isolated upper teens) most areas to upper 20s to around freezing along the OBX and beaches. This will warrant a Freeze Warning for Outer Banks Dare and Hyde (Ocracoke) for tonight, which still has not received a freeze this season. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... As of 3 PM Thu...Dry high pres continues to ridge into E NC with continued very benign conditions. Temps will moderate however with thicknesses a bit higher, and therefore temps warming into the low 50s S and W to mid/upr 40s N and NE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 215 PM Thu...Update...increased pops for the Sun night thru Mon night period with likely srn tier. Followed close to consistent ECMWF. Otherwise little to no change to prev fcst. Prev disc...Cold conditions and dry weather look to continue through most of the weekend, as affects from a possible low pressure system developing off the Southeast coast should be delayed until late Sunday and will continue into early next week. Friday and Saturday...Cold/dry weather will continue through Saturday as high pressure builds over the area. Despite continued modest CAA Friday, heights will build as a weak upper level ridge approaches from the west. This will lead to a slight moderation of temperatures with highs reaching the upper 40s to lower 50s. Sub freezing conditions will occur again inland Fri night. Highs Sat will be mainly in the low 50s. Sunday and Monday...Some variability remains within guidance through early next week, though convergence on a solution of increasing chances of rain by late Sunday afternoon across the southern portion of the area continues in the latest model run. H5 height falls associated with a strong cutoff low aloft working along the Gulf Coast and Deep South will bring increasing cloud cover this weekend, but strong mid-level ridging in place will keep dry conditions in place through the morning Sunday. Eventually, as the stacked low moves near the Florida Panhandle, deep layer destabilization and moisture transport will ensue, with rain chances beginning to work into southern portions of the area Sunday afternoon and the entire area Sunday night and Mon. Highs Sunday 55-60 and upper 50s to low 60s Mon. Monday night and Tuesday....The GFS continues to keep the bulk of the moisture with low pressure off the southeast coast suppressed to the south indicating only a minimal chance for light rain along the coast early Mon evening and dry Tue while the CMC and ECMWF are further north with the precipitation and indicate rain chances (especially coast) continuing Mon night into early Tue afternoon. Will continue to forecast chance PoPs with considerable uncertainty in this period of the forecast. Mild temps will continue Tue with highs in the lower 60s expected. Wednesday...Drying is expected Tuesday night and Wednesday as the low moves well offshore and high pressure builds in. Christmas Day is looking dry with pleasant highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Short Term /through Fri/... As of 730 PM Thu...VFR SKC through the TAF pd. High pressure will dominate the region with good flying conditions with light to calm winds. Long Term /Friday night through Mon/... As of 200 AM Thu...VFR conditions are expected through Sunday morning as high pressure produces dry weather across the area. Low pressure developing off the Southeast coast is expected to circulate moisture back across Eastern NC Sunday afternoon through Mon resulting in periods of rain and sub VFR conditions at times into early next week. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Fri/... As of 730 PM Thu...Seas have come down below 6 feet therefore we allowed the SCA to come down. Seas will continue to subside overnight through Friday 2 to 4 feet. Long Term /Friday night through Tue/... As of 200 AM Thu...Late Sunday into early next week a developing low off of the southeast coast is expected to produce hazardous marine conditions with strong winds and dangerous seas. In the meantime, marine conditions will be generally favorable Fri and Sat as high pressure builds over the waters with N/NE flow 10-15 kt and 2-4 ft seas. Exception to this will be a period of moderate N/NE flow 15-20 kt that is being indicated by the high res models late Fri afternoon and Fri evening and was included in the forecast. Conditions will begin to deteriorate late Sunday and continue through Monday as complex low pressure moves off the FL/GA coast, producing increased southerly swell 7-11 ft and SCA level NE winds of 15-25 kt beginning Sunday night and continuing through Mon. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EST Friday for NCZ203>205. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...EH/TL SHORT TERM...TL LONG TERM...RF/JME AVIATION...JME/EH/TL MARINE...RF/JME/TL