502 FXUS61 KBGM 191934 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 234 PM EST Thu Dec 19 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Arctic air will remain over the region through Friday. However, a large ridge of high pressure will gradually warm things up for the weekend and into early next week. Very quiet and dry weather conditions can be expected through the weekend and into Christmas. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... A weak warm front is moves into western NY from the SW this afternoon and evening. Out ahead of this boundary low level flow remains out of the NW and lake effect snow showers off of Lake Ontario are expected just ahead of this warm front. After the front pushes further north, the flow switches to the SW and this should then cut off lake moisture. Parts of NW Onondaga County could see light accumulations of 1 to 2 inches, before snow showers end after midnight tonight. Another cold night can be expected with lows dipping below zero in northern Oneida County and single digits to low teens elsewhere. Strong high pressure will continue to build overhead, tomorrow, but with the lowest sun angle of the year, highs will struggle to hit 20 across the north and mid 20s from the Twin Tiers southward. A weak short wave approaches from the west on Friday night into Saturday. Not expecting any precip with this, but will push in some warmer air and increase mid-level clouds enough overnight to make lows Saturday morning a few degrees warmer than what we will see tomorrow morning. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... 230 PM UPDATE...Very little changes were made to the forecast and previous discussion remains accurate. Previous Discussion... Little to change in the short term under building high pressure and dry air. Expect slowly moderating temps. Friday night into Saturday a large area of surface high pressure will be over the area with dry low level air. Aloft there is moisture enough for clouds. A cold start with lows from single digits to lower teens. Highs much warmer than Friday and around freezing. Only a few degrees below average for highs. The high moves east Saturday night and a front moves east across southeast Canada. Temperatures rise some more with lows mid teens to lower 20s and highs around 40. Increasing sunshine Sunday as the front pulls east and high pressure strengthens over PA. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... 230 PM UPDATE...Very little changes were made to the forecast and previous discussion remains accurate. Previous Discussion... Good model agreement. Quiet weather continues with mild temperatures. Split flow aloft with above average heights over the area. Upper level flow is mainly zonal. The southern stream will be active with rain over the southeast that heads out to sea and not up the east coast. Dry weather continues. At the surface high pressure Monday succumbs to a weak back door front Tuesday. High temperatures Monday and Tuesday of 40 to 45 drop to around 40 Wednesday and Thursday. Lows mostly in the 20s. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Lake effect snow showers will redevelop up north by late afternoon and into this evening. However, likely only some MVFR restrictions with ceilings and visibility expected. Gusty NW winds will decrease this evening as high pressure builds into the region. Expect conditions to continue to improve overnight with VFR at all terminals by Friday morning. Outlook... Friday afternoon through Tuesday...VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPK NEAR TERM...MPK SHORT TERM...TAC LONG TERM...TAC AVIATION...MPK