660 FXUS61 KRLX 190339 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1039 PM EST Wed Dec 18 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Light upslope snow showers today through late tonight. Mainly dry except for a brief period in the mountains and a gradual warming trend for the weekend and into next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... As of 1030 PM Wednesday... Forecast on track this evening with snow shower activity winding down...though several more hours of flurries are expected in the mountains. Tweaked hourly temperatures to reflect current trends and loaded latest HREF for sky grids which is capturing extent of sky cover nicely. As of 400 PM Wednesday... Quick update to raise pops across the northern mountains into the evening hours while keeping flurries across the adjacent lowland counties. CKB/EKN observations have shown 1-2 mile visibility in snow over the past several hours with some accumulations to an inch reported. The coverage of the snow shower activity will become increasingly confined to a few squalls dropping south out of PA this evening which the snow squall parameter picks up nicely from the various hi res models. These will tend to weaken in the next hour or so with loss of insolation but still could swipe the northern mountains this evening with additional light accumulations. As of 215 PM Wednesday... A cold front draped within close quarters to our northern forecast area has helped to usher in light snow showers today. Brief drops in visibility and very light accumulations have been the main impacts observed with these showers, with the better snow bands setting up near the Pittsburgh metro and further east into the Commonwealth. Will likely tinker with POPs a bit more this afternoon to account for latest radar trends, but at least have the main idea down at the time of this writing of flurries falling in the lowlands and light snow in the northern mountains. Maintained the same logic as the previous forecaster of an inch of less in the mountains with this event. These showers will continue into the evening, squeezing out a few more flurries over the mountains late tonight before H85 moisture runs out. After the passage of the cold front overnight, surface high pressure builds into Central Appalachia for Thursday, with tranquil weather persisting into the end of the work week. In terms of temperatures, we'll struggle to get above freezing today as clouds overhead shield sunlight from reaching the surface. Clouds filter out after midnight tonight, allowing for temperatures to cool down significantly more than what was observed last night. Most areas will wake up to temperatures in the teens Thursday morning, with the higher ridgetops stretching down into the single digits. Gusty winds overnight will inflict even cooler wind chills over the mountains, warranting the Wind Chill Advisory going into effect this evening and lasting into the morning. High pressure in place Thursday will evade any cloud development and allowing for afternoon temperatures to rise into the upper 30s (lowlands) and mid-20s (mountains). && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 145 PM Wednesday... Dry and gradual warming through the period under brief ridging aloft and surface high pressure drifting to the ENE. Quiet pattern for December with the polar jet more active in southern Canada than the Great Lakes/central Appalachians. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 145 PM Wednesday... Southern stream upper low traverses the deep south, with a possibility of slinging some of the moisture into our mountains as it moves along the northern Gulf Coast. Aside from that and the cloud cover, very little in the way of sensible weather effects for our CWA as the bulk of the action stays well to the south. Ridging aloft returns in its wake as we get closer to the holiday. Expecting temperatures to be well above normal for this time frame and a lack of precipitation period, let alone snow. && .AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 640 PM Wednesday... Lingering SHSN at CKB/EKN will result in IFR VSBY at times thru 03Z with general MVFR CIGs persisting into 06Z, including BKW. There may be some brief reductions in VSBY at BKW this evening in SHSN but elected to roll with VFR and handle with amendments if needed. Stratocu will gradually dissipate overnight with EKN/CKB the last to scatter out during the predawn if not a bit later. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail heading into Thursday with just some morning stratocu across the northern mountains. Gusty westerly winds will persist through the evening hours at CKB/EKN before subsiding as high pressure builds in from the west. Surface winds back to the south Thursday becoming light. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium thru 03Z at CKB/EKN, high elsewhere. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing the conclusion of snow showers may vary from the forecast at CKB and EKN. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 12/19/19 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EST 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H M M L M H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H L L H M M M M M H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Wind Chill Advisory until 8 AM EST Thursday for WVZ523-526. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...26/MEK NEAR TERM...30/MEK SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...30