030 
FXUS63 KEAX 182322
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
522 PM CST Wed Dec 18 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 301 PM CST WED DEC 18 2019

Only concerns over the next few days is the potential for fog as
warmer air advects over the region's snow cover. There is some
potential for this tonight, but dewpoints still look too low to
yield the high humidity values, even with the snow cover. So for
now, have kept any mention out of the forecast. Tomorrow night, 
as dewpoints creep into the upper 20s and surface winds decrease 
some overnight, there appears to be a better potential for fog, 
especially in our northeastern zones. Have added some patchy fog 
to account for this possibility and the coverage and how thick the
fog may get can be adjusted as needed.

For the rest of the forecast, warmer and drier weather will
prevail. A shortwave trough will move south of the area Friday
into Saturday. This feature is embedded in the overall longwave
ridging pattern so it's main impact on the area will be to dampen
out potential warming. But as that wave moves into the Southeast
and the upper ridge gets reestablished over the area, highs should
climb well above normal for the first half of next week. Normal
high temperatures for this time of year are in the upper 30s.
Forecast highs are in the middle 50s, about 15 degrees above
normal. Strong warm advection noted on the GFS, ECMWF, and
Canadian could all push those temperatures higher. It will also
advect unseasonable warm dewpoints into the area. That 
unseasonably warm air and moist air may lead to showers during the
middle of next week. 

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 522 PM CST WED DEC 18 2019

VFR conds will prevail thru the TAF pd with just a few high clouds
expected (although, there is a slight chance for fog at STJ but
the better chances appear to be north of the terminal). Winds thru
the period will range between 7-12kts out of the south (except STJ
which will have lgt southerly winds overnight).

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...73