822 
FXUS63 KEAX 182101
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
301 PM CST Wed Dec 18 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 301 PM CST WED DEC 18 2019

Only concerns over the next few days is the potential for fog as
warmer air advects over the region's snow cover. There is some
potential for this tonight, but dewpoints still look too low to
yield the high humidity values, even with the snow cover. So for
now, have kept any mention out of the forecast. Tomorrow night, 
as dewpoints creep into the upper 20s and surface winds decrease 
some overnight, there appears to be a better potential for fog, 
especially in our northeastern zones. Have added some patchy fog 
to account for this possibility and the coverage and how thick the
fog may get can be adjusted as needed.

For the rest of the forecast, warmer and drier weather will
prevail. A shortwave trough will move south of the area Friday
into Saturday. This feature is embedded in the overall longwave
ridging pattern so it's main impact on the area will be to dampen
out potential warming. But as that wave moves into the Southeast
and the upper ridge gets reestablished over the area, highs should
climb well above normal for the first half of next week. Normal
high temperatures for this time of year are in the upper 30s.
Forecast highs are in the middle 50s, about 15 degrees above
normal. Strong warm advection noted on the GFS, ECMWF, and
Canadian could all push those temperatures higher. It will also
advect unseasonable warm dewpoints into the area. That 
unseasonably warm air and moist air may lead to showers during the
middle of next week. 



&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1129 AM CST WED DEC 18 2019

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast with generally
clear skies and light southerly winds. A weak low-level jet will 
develop tonight but at the moment don't think it's strong enough 
to mention low-level wind shear. 


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...CDB