377 FXUS63 KFGF 182054 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 254 PM CST Wed Dec 18 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 153 PM CST Wed Dec 18 2019 Low impacts from sensible weather are expected during the short term period. Some high clouds are filtering the sun this afternoon downstream of a building upper ridge to the west. This is promoting WAA with temperatures into the teens to twenties above zero, warmest near central North Dakota. Tight surface pressure gradient remains ahead of a warm front west of the area is allowing for southerly winds to gust between 15-35 mph, highest along the eastern Red River Valley. This is creating patchy drifting and blowing snow, and will continue to do so through around 4-5 PM before winds lessen towards sunset. A weak back door cold front moves into the region tonight, however temperature advection is lacking allowing temperatures to remain above zero tonight. Thursday will be dry with increasing cloudiness ahead of an incoming mid level shortwave trough. The trough is expected to reside in dry mid levels as it passes through, and indeed this dry air mass is observed upstream via microwave imagery within the central Rockies and High Plains. Near the lowest levels is saturation progged to be near or below 1 km deep. While this isn't necessarily a deep saturated layer, the lift and respondent WAA associated with the trough Friday may be enough to get light precipitation started. The lack of ice nuclei from dry mid levels above a saturated low level brings the chance for freezing drizzle with the saturated low level temps between the 0 and -10 C. Thus, have introduced a small chance of flurries and freezing drizzle Thursday night into Friday. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 153 PM CST Wed Dec 18 2019 Main weather story during the long term will be warm temperatures this weekend into next week with minimal precipitation chances. Thus low impacts are expected. There are also the first glimmers of potentially increasing precipitation chances beyond Wednesday, but confidence is quite low regarding details. Friday-Sunday: Upper ridging moves out of the western CONUS and into the Northern Plains this weekend with a pocket of unusually warm 850 mb temps between 8-12 C progged to accompany this ridging, something that is in the upper percentile of NAEFS, GEFS, and ENS. This will bring the chance for unseasonably warm temps this weekend possibly getting above freezing Saturday and Sunday. Confidence in these temps is furthered as south- southwesterly winds are expected, a typical direction to promote mixing and downslope warming for our area. Dry conditions are expected this weekend with no source of lift and dry air underneath ridging. Monday-Wednesday: Ridging flattens becoming more zonal early next week, continuing the trend towards seasonably mild temperatures, ie lows above zero and highs around the freezing mark. There may be a weak wave or two that passes through the flow slightly increasing chances for light and brief precipitation. Getting towards mid- late next week, including the holidays, ensemble guidance suggests ridging breaks down over the area moving eastward as troughing develops in the western CONUS. This will place the area under southwesterly flow aloft. Many ensemble members develop lee cyclogenesis in the High Plains moving it eastward into the Midwest. Latest National Blend of Models ensemble system places an area of QPF over the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest, including our CWA, around the 26-27th timeframe. This would indicate at least some chance for appreciable precipitation resides in this timeframe; although details on timing, location, as well as precipitation type and amounts are greatly lacking due to the spread in ensemble guidance. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1154 AM CST Wed Dec 18 2019 Main impact for the TAFs will be switching wind directions over the next 12+ hours. Winds will switch from the south, to the west, then to the north overnight. Wind speeds are strongest right now in the immediate Red River Valley, but should drop off again through the afternoon, becoming lower again tonight into early Thursday. Models are showing the potential for MVFR or low end VFR clouds Thursday morning, associated with the wind switch to the north. For that reason, included that mention at all TAF sites but KFAR. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CJ LONG TERM...CJ AVIATION...Godon