318 FXUS63 KFGF 171939 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 139 PM CST Tue Dec 17 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 136 PM CST Tue Dec 17 2019 Flurries have exited to the south with clouds still hanging on in portions of eastern ND. Temps are gradually cooling amidst low level CAA and will continue to hold steady or decrease through mid afternoon. No changes were made to the forecast. UPDATE Issued at 1054 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2019 Some lingering flurries and snow showers continue to move south in the Red River Valley and west central MN. Adjusted the forecast to reflect these lingering showers. Clouds are also lingering longer than expected in northeast ND. UPDATE Issued at 525 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2019 Snowfall continues to be very light with minimal reductions in vsby and weak returns on radar. Dry low layer will continue to limit snowfall reaching the surface. Went ahead and refined the expected coverage this morning trimming the northern edge of the light snow area as returns have diminished and expected flurries or light snow will stream just south of DVL to near FAR this morning. Cold front evident from northerly SFC winds is currently near the hwy 200 corridor and pushing southward. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 259 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2019 Impacts in the short term will be associated with an arctic front pushing south across the area this morning. This feature will bring an area of light snowfall and steady to falling temps today with dangerous wind chills tonight into Wednesday. A narrow area of snow showers is expected to stream southeast across the Devils Lake basin into the central and southern Red River valley this morning into early afternoon as weak frontogenetical lift slides across the center of the FA. Light amounts are expected with a dusting to possibly an inch. Temps will steadily fall across the north today with more steady temps in the south until the front pushes south of the area late in the morning in the area south of I94. This evening will see temps continue to fall and after sundown rapidly into the teens below zero with clear skies and light winds as the SFC high pressure slides southeast across the area. A few locations can be expected to fall into the 20s below. This cold won't last long as the SFC high slides to the southeast quickly and return southerly flow develops during the overnight in the west and possibly some in the valley before sunrise. This mixing will begin to moderate temps in the early morning hours however as the winds pick up wind chills will range from 25 to 35 below zero for much of the area tonight through the first part of Wednesday. Those south winds will increase to near 20mph sustained in the valley in by afternoon and gradually erode or moderate the arctic airmass with late afternoon highs near 20 in the Devils Lake basin to single digits across the MN pines region. As the warm advection lifts across NW MN some light snow or flurries will be possible Wednesday. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 259 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2019 There will be minimal impacts throughout the long term period. The long term period starts out Wednesday night with an upper ridge sliding over the central CONUS, kickstarting a warmup that peaks Saturday as afternoon highs peak right around freezing. Although upper trough does move across area on Friday, little moisture is present. Ensemble plumes indicate high confidence for Thursday and Friday highs in the teens and twenties, however the spread increases quite a bit for Saturday, with the mean just below freezing however there continues to be several members significantly cooler. Still fairly high confidence temperatures will be in the upper 20s to near 30, possibly higher...understanding much of the increased solar will go into melting the snow pack. A long wave trough lingers off the west coast for much of period, with zonal flow over the region. Generally quiet weather is expected with QPF plumes keeping total precip less than one-hundredth of an inch for Saturday-Wednesday as low amplitude ridging sets up to the west as the trough moves into the coast. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 1140 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2019 Low VFR and MVFR CIGs are lingering in northeast ND into the Red River Valley a bit longer than expected. Observed trends of redevelopment in this stratus indicate it may not dissipate soon. Therefore carried these CIGs through 21 UTC at KFAR, KGFK, and KDVL. Eventual clearing is expected briefly as the center of the arctic high pressure moves through the region. Eventually return southeasterly flow develops behind the exiting high, reintroducing CIGs into the forecast. Mainly VFR CIGs are expected through the TAF period excluding KDVL where MVFR CIGs are forecast around 12 UTC. With this return flow, increasing winds 10-20 kt out of the southeast will develop after 12 UTC in eastern North Dakota. Still some question regarding KBJI and KTVF on low clouds developing here after 09 UTC, but some guidance is hinting at redevelopment of low CIGs. Did not include this in the TAF forecast due to low confidence. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...CJ SHORT TERM...JK LONG TERM...Speicher AVIATION...CJ