852 FXUS63 KFGF 161131 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 531 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 305 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019 Currently in a NW flow aloft pattern with departing wave allowing some clearing behind a departing surface trough, with temperatures falling below zero in the Devils Lake basin and remaining around 20 across the far south. Expect to see a non-diurnal temp curve today as hourly temps continue to fall through mid-morning before a warm frontal boundary moves across the northern tier mid-day. Mid to late morning temps will fall below zero in northwest Minnesota and single digits across the south, before temps climb into the teens this afternoon. A cold front then drops through the area overnight into Tuesday morning. Two periods of light snow, both with minimal impacts, are expected. Light snow showers or flurries associated with warm advection will move into north central ND this morning and into northeastern ND near mid-day. Activity then spreads across northwest MN as minor short wave moves across the area mid-aftn. Light accumulations possible mainly across northwestern MN. A better chance for light accumulations occurs with a second wave and associated cold front late tonight into Tuesday. Models showing weak H700 frontogenetic forcing across central CWA around 12Z Tues however best Q-vector convergence remains further north, although the nose of an upper jet does sink into Dakotas tonight. Blended solutions are bringing a quick moving shot of light snow mainly along area of FG forcing from late tonight into early Tue aftn. Ensembles in good agreement for low QPF amounts (around one-hundredth of an inch), for a high probability, low QPF event with up to half an inch accumulation by noon Tues the most likely scenario. Temps will fall back into the single digits across the north and low teens across the south for Tues highs, with breezy winds developing with the increasing cold advection by late Tue aftn. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 305 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019 Little impacts in the extended as the northern plains remain in a relatively quiet pattern. After the cold high pressure Wednesday morning brings lows in the teens below zero and wind chills as cold as minus 30 temperatures will moderate for the end of the week into the weekend as NW flow becomes more zonal aloft. Highs in the teens through the end of the work week and then mid 20s are expected for the weekend. Ensemble spread means range from less than a tenth in the south to 0.15" of an inch in NW MN for the 7 day period. Light snow chances exists across NW MN Wednesday and again Friday as there is a signal for a weak clipper system to move along the periphery of the 500mb ridging nosing up into the area from the central plains. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) Issued at 527 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019 VFR today with increasing cloudiness, some light snow or flurries possible by mid-day across the northern valley and northwest Minnesota. Decreasing cigs after sunset, with TVF/BJI seeing MVFR by 03Z and BJI falling to IFR after midnight. VFR cigs within and west of the valley although some light snow possible near morning. Also expect a SW to NW wind shift late tonight. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Speicher LONG TERM...JK AVIATION...Speicher