549 FXUS64 KAMA 150453 AAB AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1053 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2019 .AVIATION... A cold front will continue to slide southward across the TAF sites this morning. Low clouds in the LIFR range are expected to develop eventually at all sites. GUY should see the LIFR conditions at the start of the forecast with DHT and AMA seeing MVFR conditions for a time before falling into the LIFR range. Cigs will slowly improve at all sites toward evening. North winds are expected to be around 15 knots behind the front. A period of -FZDZ is possible at the GUY TAF site between about 11z and 18z. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 528 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2019/ AVIATION... A cold front will move southward through the TAF sites during the morning hours on Sunday. The front should move through the GUY and DHT TAF sites between 10z and 13z and it should move through the AMA TAF site between 16z and 18z. Winds will turn to the north behind the front and they will get gusty, especially at DHT. Low clouds at least in the MVFR range are expected to fill in behind the front. DHT and GUY are expected to see cigs drop into the LIFR range for about 4 to 5 hours during the morning and then they may improve back into the MVFR range. Some freezing drizzle will also be possible mainly for GUY. AMA should have MVFR cigs behind the front and these should last through the end of the forecast. PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 417 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2019/ SHORT TERM...Through Tonight. A nice day to start the weekend across the Panhandles. Today may also be the warmest day of the entire week, but that will be discussed more in the long term forecast section. Mostly sunny skies with southerly winds, especially across the southwest TX Panhandle with temperatures already well into the 50s to near 60 in some locations. On the colder end of the temperature forecast for today, the north central and northeastern Panhandles with easterly flow will likely remain in the 40s to near 50 for the rest of today. As the main disturbance approaches from the north later tonight into early morning hours Sunday, cloudy skies will begin to fill in across the northern Panhandles. This could be accompanied with some patchy freezing fog/freezing drizzle possible right before sunrise. Best chances of that will be across the OK Panhandle and far northern TX Panhandle. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid to upper 20s across the northern and eastern Panhandles to lower 30s for the rest of the region. Meccariello LONG TERM...Sunday through Saturday. The next upper level shortwave trof is progged to affect the forecast area Sunday and Sunday night. The latest 12Z short range models are in a little better agreement with respect to cold frontal timing. Overall, the NAM is just a bit faster bringing the front through the region and, consequently, is the coldest with max temps Sunday. The GFS is the warmest. Have leaned towards a compromise on max temps on Sunday. A sharp gradient in max temps seems plausible Sunday, ranging from the 30s across the OK Panhandle and far northern TX Panhandle to the middle 50s in the far southwest Texas Panhandle. Regarding the threat for wintry precipitation, there may be some potential for patchy freezing fog and light freezing drizzle Sunday morning across the OK Panhandle and far nern TX Panhandle. No ice accumulations are expected at this time. Otherwise, it still appears slgt chc to chc pops are warranted for the OK Panhandle and northern TX Panhandle starting late Sunday morning through Sunday night. Highest pops continue to be placed in the OK Panhandle, diminishing southward to non-mentionable values in the southern TX Panhandle based on the projected path of the upper level shortwave trof. Snowfall accumulations, if any, are forecast to range from a trace to around one half of an inch across the northern half of the fcst area. Flurries are also possible in the southern TX Panhandle. No pops after Sunday night. Slowly moderating temperatures are foreseen Wednesday through Saturday. 02 && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ 15/77