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FXUS63 KMPX 141747 AAB
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1147 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 357 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2019

Extensive stratus remains shrouded over the area early this
morning, with areas of freezing drizzle, freezing fog/mist, and 
flurries. Drier air will work in gradually this morning and the
clouds will scatter from northwest to southeast through the day.
Highs will be reached this morning, with steady or slowly falling
into the single digits late in the day as cold air advection
continues.

Tonight will be another cold one, but how cold will be heavily
dependent on sky cover. Winds will decouple, so if the sky can
remain clear we will have ideal radiational cooling conditions and
temperatures will drop into the teens and 20s below zero like the
other morning. The urban heat island will also be rather pronounced
with lows only around 5 below. The best chance for clear skies 
will be across central MN, particularly the typically coldest 
areas in the CWA near Todd, Morrison, and Stearns counties. Areas
here are predicted to drop into the low -20s. Since wind will be
light and variable or calm, no wind chill headlines will be
needed.

Cold temps continue into early next week with only single digits
expected Sunday. Did warm highs a bit closer to the 50th
percentile and are a tad warmer than the NBM, similar to the last
cold surge.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 357 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2019

Mainly dry conditions are expected next week, with well-below normal 
temperatures at the start of the week potentially warming back up 
towards seasonable values by the weekend. Zonal flow aloft over the 
weekend continues into Tuesday and then becomes northwesterly 
Tuesday-Wednesday, ushering in a reinforcing short of Arctic air 
midweek. Highs in the teens along with lows around zero are expected 
Monday and Tuesday, with the coldest air expected Tuesday night into 
Wednesday mornings when lows may again approach the teens below zero 
in some locations. Can't rule out a few flurries with the cold front 
passage Tuesday, especially across western Wisconsin, but think we 
will stay dry overall with moisture remaining locked up well to the 
southeast of the region. Temperatures look to rebound somewhat 
during the day Wednesday and into Thursday with high pressure off to 
the east, but models diverge somewhat on the extent of warming 
towards the end of the week and into the weekend. Fairly good 
consensus on ridging building into the central US by midweek, but 
then models diverge on whether this ridging noses into the upper 
Midwest or flattens out to more zonal flow. Regardless it looks like 
we will see a return to more seasonable temperatures towards the 
weekend, with the extend of ridging determining whether they end up 
a few degrees above or below normal. The rest of the week looks dry 
overall, with a shortwave somewhere over the plains/Upper Midwest 
potentially leading to some precipitation on Friday. Models show 
show little to nothing in the way of precipitation due to the lack 
of moisture this far north, so will keep out any PoP mention at this 
time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2019

MVFR cigs are exiting MN to the east and will clear the WI TAF
sites this afternoon. Thin IFR cigs continue to impact southwest
and west central MN, including RWF. These clouds should eventually
dissipate, but IFR conditions are possible at times for at least
the next couple hours.

KMSP...Skies are about to clear and remain cloud free through most
of the night before mid level clouds increase Sunday. Northwest
winds will ease and become light tonight.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sun...VFR. Wind WSW 5 kts.
Mon...VFR. Wind WNW 5 kts.
Tue...VFR. Wind NW 10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...ETA
AVIATION...BORGHOFF