529 FXUS63 KOAX 141218 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 618 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2019 ...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 333 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2019 At 333 AM, low clouds and breezy north winds were widespread over Nebraska and Iowa in the wake of yesterday evenings cold frontal passage. Wind chill values were in the single digits in northeast Nebraska, a condition that should spread to the rest of the region by sunrise. Today's high temperatures were reached at Midnight. Step out the door this morning and you will know all you need to know about todays weather...its cold! Temperatures today will top out in the 20s this afternoon, and wind chill values will remain in the single digits and teens through the day. Any snow, at least through sunset should remain to our west over the Sand Hills and parts of Wyoming. Light snow showers should creep into eastern Nebraska this evening and overnight as a weak shortwave ahead of the main trough in the Rockies spreads isentropic lift across the state. Dry air in the low levels may initially inhibit snowfall, but it shouldn't stop it completely. Light accumulations of a trace to 2 inches are possible in Albion and Columbus by sunrise Sunday. Snow should become increasingly focused along the KS/NE border Sunday, then linger into Monday as the main upper level trough moves out of the Rockies. Confidence was high enough this morning to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for extreme southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Ensemble solutions are indicating moderate to high confidence in at least 2 inches of snow in these areas. Our current forecast favors 2 to 5 inches of snowfall. Some consideration was given to expanding the advisory further northward. However the uncertainty surrounding snowfall potential appeared to be considerably higher as you approach the Interstate 80 corridor (possible snow amounts of a trace to 4 inches). Hence no advisory was issued for the Lincoln or Omaha metros at this time. Later shifts can reevaluate. Once the snow ends Monday, it looks like the region is in for a prolonged stretch of dry weather, with no significant storm systems currently in the pipeline through next weekend. The odds of above normal temperature are also good during this time period. Check out the CPC 6 to 10 Day outlook for more details. .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1111 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2019 Over the past hour ceilings at all TAF sites have increase to MVFR. With a cold front sweeping through the area, northwesterly winds have become gusty up to 22 knots. Winds will remain gusty through the early morning and will continue decreasing throughout the day on Saturday. Ceilings will improve to VFR across the area from 10-12z and clouds will diminish during the day on Saturday. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) Issued at 606 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2019 MVFR ceilings at KOFK, KOMA, and KLNK should improve to VFR between 15-18Z. MVFR ceilings return to KOFK by 04Z as a weather system begins to move into the area. Light snow is also possible. Light snow and MVFR ceilings return to KLNK and KOMA between 04Z to 07Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 6 PM CST Monday for NEZ068-088>093. IA...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 6 PM CST Monday for IAZ090-091. && $$ DISCUSSION...Albright AVIATION...Smith