964 
FXUS64 KLZK 132053
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
253 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2019

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday

20Z mesoanalysis reveals a large and relatively diffuse area of
low pressure at the surface over much of the central CONUS, 
underneath broad upper troughing that continues progressing east
this afternoon. Model progs show a subtle low-level wave
on the southern end of larger-scale upper troughing traversing 
southern AR tonight, which will enhance cloud cover, although
rainfall is not expected. Low stratus and at least patchy fog will
be favored tonight, especially across the southern and eastern
portions of the state. Dense fog will be possible again. 

Another large upper trough will come ashore and traverse the
southwestern CONUS in the Sat/Sun timeframe. The positioning and
movement of this feature will contribute to surface cyclogenesis 
deep in TX. Ahead of the developing cyclone, a warm front will
lift north towards the area late in the period. Increasing
thermal/moisture advection and isentropic forcing will support
increasing rain probabilities Sunday afternoon. Some mixed precip
will be possible in extreme northern AR, although no impacts are
expected. 

Temperatures will slowly moderate this period ahead of the
aforementioned system. Expecting values near to slightly above
average. 

Cooper

&&

.LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Thursday Night

Much of the focus for the long term portion of the forecast will 
reside within the first 24 hours of the period. At the surface, low 
pressure will be in place southwest of the area with a cold front 
trailing to its southwest and a warm front extending eastward across 
central Arkansas. 

Aloft, the flow will become more amplified as an H500 trough moves 
toward the Central Plains. From Sunday night to Monday, a broad 
region of 75-85kt winds within the SW-NE oriented H500 layer will be 
in place over the state. Through the morning hours on Monday as the 
cold front approaches from the west and the warm front lifts north a 
bit further, H850 winds of 45-55kt will increase across the 
southeastern third of the state. 

During this timeframe, rain and thunderstorms are expected to 
develop with a potential risk for a few severe storms into Monday 
morning across the southeast quarter of the state roughly. If the 
location of the low works out and the warm air has lifted far enough 
north, a few of these storms could be capable of producing 
tornadoes/damaging wind gusts. 

Beyond Monday, the upper trough will move east and drier/calmer 
conditions will be seen across the forecast area. Temperatures will 
be near normal through the period. 

67

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     37  53  34  45 /  20   0  10  30 
Camden AR         38  61  41  61 /  10   0   0  30 
Harrison AR       36  48  31  42 /  10  10  20  40 
Hot Springs AR    39  56  39  53 /  10   0   0  30 
Little Rock   AR  38  54  39  51 /  10   0   0  30 
Monticello AR     40  58  41  60 /  10   0   0  30 
Mount Ida AR      37  56  38  54 /   0   0   0  30 
Mountain Home AR  37  48  31  41 /  20  10  20  50 
Newport AR        37  52  34  45 /  20   0  10  30 
Pine Bluff AR     38  56  39  56 /  10   0   0  30 
Russellville AR   38  53  38  49 /  10   0  10  30 
Searcy AR         36  54  36  49 /  20   0  10  30 
Stuttgart AR      39  54  39  53 /  10   0  10  30 
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...COOPER / Long Term...67