877 FXUS63 KILX 121605 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1005 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 401 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2019 A windy day is in store for the area today as southerly winds of 15 to 20 mph with gusts to around 30 mph develops by late morning. This will also bring warmer temperatures by this afternoon, reaching into the middle to upper 40s across all of central Illinois. Temperatures will fall tonight, but increasing clouds will keep temperatures from falling too far, reaching down to just below freezing. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1005 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2019 Windy conditions are still on track for today as a strong low pressure system to the north draws strong southerly winds through central IL. Models consistently keep an inversion around 1000 feet above the surface keeping much of the strong flow aloft from mixing down to the surface, nevertheless, southerly winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts perhaps exceeding 30 mph will affect most areas north of I-70 late this morning through early afternoon, decreasing slightly during the late afternoon hours and further overnight. Mostly cloudy conditions can be expected today, as thick high clouds shift off to the east and are replaced by lower clouds from the west, although models hint that there could be a break between these two features developing in the afternoon. Only minor updates to gridded forecasts needed this morning. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) ISSUED AT 401 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2019 A windy day is in store for central Illinois today as southerly winds of 15 to 20 mph with gusts to around 30 mph develops by late morning. This will bring warmer temps by this afternoon, reaching into the middle to upper 40s across the CWA. Temperatures will fall again tonight, but increasing clouds will keep temperatures from falling too far, reaching down to just below freezing. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 401 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2019 Models are coming into a little better agreement with the next system/trough moving through the area Friday night through Saturday. However, the NAM is the only model that has any decent amount of QPF moving over the area...but not until Saturday. So, after a dry day on Friday, chance pops will slowly increase in the northwest CWA late Friday night, followed by more chance pops for Saturday across the whole CWA. P-type will be tricky given minimal forcing and not alot of RH. So, will have rain/snow in some areas with freezing drizzle and snow possible in some areas overnight into early Sat morning. QPF amounts will be quite low with precip amounts well below one tenth of an inch to maybe just a trace. So, any ice accumulation will also be minimal to trace. After a dry period Sat night through Sunday, the next system will move into the region with more rain/snow Sun night through Mon, and then all snow Mon and Mon night. Models still not collaborated well with this system so confidence level remains low as to start of precip, location of heaviest precip, and location of snowfall. More inclined to lean toward the southern track of the ECMWF and Canadian since GFS is stronger and more north. Either model solution has some snow accumulation Monday, just hard to determine where and how much given model differences. After this system, dry weather is expected Tuesday and Wednesday. Temps will also become cooler than normal again after this last system. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) Issued at 535 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2019 VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs, except for PIA toward end of TAF period. Broken high cirrus blankets all TAF sites to start and will continue during most of the day. Then cirrus will scatter out during the afternoon hours at all sites except PIA which will begin to see broken mid clouds moving into the area. Scattered to broken mid clouds will advect over the other sites during the evening hours, starting at SPI and BMI and then slowly progressing to CMI by around midnight. At PIA, lower clouds around 5kft will arrive for the evening, but overnight will see MVFR clouds advect into the area. BMI will see lower clouds around 4kft after midnight. Winds will become southerly through the day with increasing speeds with gusts of 28-30kts during the morning and early afternoon hours. Speeds will decrease in the afternoon and then get even lighter during the evening. Expecting south-southwest winds overnight with speeds less then 10kts. Low level wind shear is still expected this morning, through 15z at all TAF sites. Expecting LLWS of 50kts at PIA, BMI, and SPI...with 45kts at DEC and CMI. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...37 SYNOPSIS...Auten SHORT TERM...Auten LONG TERM...Auten AVIATION...Auten