437 
FXUS64 KSJT 111206
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
606 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2019

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

MVFR/IFR ceilings will affect the terminals through mid to 
late morning, with stratus lifting/scattering out to VFR 
thereafter. Patchy fog will also reduce visibilities to 
around 2SM at times through mid morning across the southern 
terminals. Expect light winds through the forecast period.  
 
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 232 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2019/ 

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

With a moist boundary layer and ongoing radiational cooling, low 
clouds and patchy fog/freezing fog are affecting our southern and 
central counties early this morning. Expect a breakup of low cloud
cover and dissipation of fog by mid-to-late morning, with sunny 
to partly cloudy skies this afternoon. After a cold start to the 
day, temperatures should reach the mid to upper 50s for highs this
afternoon. Southeast to south winds will increase to 7-14 mph, 
with surface high pressure ridge slowly receding from our area and
lee surface trough developing to our west. Generally clear skies 
are expected tonight, with overnight lows 30-35 degrees. The 
colder readings are expected to be in some of the low-lying areas 
and river valleys of our Heartland and Northwest Hill Country 
counties, where winds will be weakest and radiational cooling will
be a little stronger.

19

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)

No significant changes were needed for the long term forecast. A
progressive and generally dry pattern is expected from Thursday
into early next week, with temperatures warming into the 60s and
70s for Friday and the weekend. A shortwave will move through the
southern plains Thursday, but the most we can expect out of this 
is a shift to west/northwest winds late Thursday into Friday. 
Temperatures will warm from the upper 50s to mid 60s Thursday 
into the mid 60s to lower 70s Friday and Saturday. Another
stronger cold front is expected to move through the area Sunday
into Monday morning. Medium range models disagree on the timing of
the front. Both models show a trough moving across the central
U. S. Sunday night into Monday, but the EC is slightly faster, and
pushes the cold front through a few hours faster than the GFS. The
main impact would be cooler temperatures for Sunday across the
northern half of the forecast area if the ECMWF is correct. Monday
and Tuesday will both be cooler across the entire area with highs
mainly in the 50s. 

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 54  34  59  40 /   0   0   0   0 
San Angelo 	 57  32  64  38 /   0   0   0   0 
Junction 	 56  31  63  36 /   0   0   0   0 
Brownwood 	 54  30  60  36 /   0   0   0   0 
Sweetwater 	 54  35  59  42 /   0   0   0   0 
Ozona      	 55  32  60  36 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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