916 FXUS63 KDLH 111102 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 502 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 502 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2019 Mainly quiet and cold conditions are expected for today before a system moves through the Northland for tonight into Thursday bringing a round of accumulating snow. High pressure was in place across western and southern Minnesota early this morning. Low pressure over Hudson Bay was keeping a pressure gradient in place across the Northland allowing west- northwesterly winds of 5 to 15 mph to persist through the night. This was leading to wind chills of 25 to 35 degrees below zero under mainly clear skies. A light plume of light lake-effect snow was also seen along the South Shore of Lake Superior from northern Douglas County into the Bayfield Peninsula. Winds will vary a bit through the day today and may lead to this band shifting from time to time. Any snowfall accumulations from this bad are expected to be light. Otherwise, skies will be mostly sunny for much of the day with clouds starting to increase from the southwest late this afternoon. Highs will be within a few degrees either side of zero with much of northeastern Minnesota being on the negative side of zero. A mid-level shortwave will move from the Northern Plains tonight to the Central Great Lakes by Thursday evening. This feature will spread snow showers across the Northland by late evening and continue overnight and into Thursday morning before tapering off by midday across northeastern Minnesota and early afternoon in northwest Wisconsin. While the best isentropic lift and stronger negative Thaler-QG values will remain south of the Northland, some of the highest QPF will pass through the southern half of the forecast area. This will bring a wide swath of around a quarter inch of QPF to this area with parts of Iron/Ashland/Sawyer/Price Counties seeing slightly higher amounts. With the cold temperatures in place, snow ratios will be around 19 to 20:1, leading to a strip of 2 to 5 inch snowfall accumulations from the Brainerd Lakes area to the I-35 corridor and northwest Wisconsin. The highest amounts will be in the aforementioned Iron/Ashland/Sawyer/Price County area where 3 to 6 inches of accumulation will be possible. Between the snowfall amounts and the timing of the system impacting the Thursday morning commute, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued. Models hint at a loss of ice aloft as snowfall ends across north-central Wisconsin, so there may be some light freezing drizzle as snow ends in eastern Iron and eastern Price Counties Thursday afternoon. Lows tonight will be in the teens and single digits below zero, but winds are expected to be lighter and and wind chill headlines are not currently expected. Highs Thursday will be in the teens above zero. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 502 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2019 Thursday night to be relatively quiet with lingering Lake Effect snow showers along the North Shore. Our next shortwave moves into the area for Friday and Friday night, bringing a period of snow to mainly the northern half of the forecast area. At the surface an inverted trough slides across the area with this event, but with the baroclinic zone draped across the Arrowhead, that is where the better dynamics are with this shortwave, mostly affecting the afternoon and evening as the upper level feature moves across the area. So far, it appears we are looking at a solid 2 to 4 inches along the Canadian border, with some locally higher amounts in the higher terrain along Lake Superior. The clouds and warm air advection should allow temperatures to rise up into the lower to middle 20s on Friday. Some lingering lake effect snow continues into Saturday along the South Shore before tapering off on Saturday night as the surface ridge pushes into the area and ridging builds aloft. This ridge brings another shot of cold air for Saturday night, with lows probably dipping into the negative double digits for parts of the area. Conditions get somewhat quiet for the Sunday through Wednesday time range, with an upper level trough moving across the area, but it appears there is very poor agreement between models in the embedded shortwaves within this trough axis, and the models each bring some shortwaves across during this time range to affect us with some light snow, but at different times and affecting different locations. For now have left the forecast dry, but would not be surprised to need to add some small pops into this time range at some point. It appears temperatures remain below normal for the first half of the work week, with the upper level trough bringing a pool of cold air aloft to over the area. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 1132 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2019 VFR conditions expected with gusty northwest winds. No big concerns except for some anthropogenic MVFR cigs/vsbys near KHIB and a system moving into the KBRD area late in the TAF period which will bring snow. && .MARINE... Issued at 502 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2019 West to northwest winds remain in the 15 to 25 knot range overnight, but should diminish through the day on Wednesday. This has produced hazardous conditions for small craft along portions of the South Shore that lingers into Wednesday. These winds and waves are also producing some areas of Heavy Freezing Spray, so we have both Small Craft Advisories and Freezing Spray warnings for the Port Wing to Sand Island to Bayfield areas until 10 AM. Winds continue to diminish and turn to the southwest Wednesday night, before slowly turning to the south and then southeast on Thursday. Waves remain less than 3 feet Tonight through Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH -2 -6 15 6 / 0 100 60 20 INL -1 -8 9 1 / 0 40 10 40 BRD -2 -3 12 3 / 0 100 30 20 HYR 2 -5 18 5 / 0 100 90 10 ASX 2 -2 19 9 / 10 90 90 10 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST today for WIZ001>004-006>009. Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to noon CST Thursday for WIZ001>004-006>009. MN...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ010>012-018>021- 025-026-033>038. Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to noon CST Thursday for MNZ033>038. LS...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 10 AM CST this morning for LSZ146-147. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for LSZ146-147. && $$ SHORT TERM...BJH LONG TERM...LE AVIATION...Wolfe MARINE...LE