428 
FXUS63 KTOP 102312
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
512 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2019

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 321 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2019

As of mid-afternoon, the center of a 1030mb surface ridge was 
sliding southward out of the Dakotas and Nebraska. Looking aloft, 
water vapor imagery depicted a broad troughing pattern in place 
across the Midwest with a stream of moisture moving over the eastern 
US ahead of a 500hpa shortwave trough over TX. Closer to home, a mid 
level deck of clouds and associated light radar reflectivities was 
moving across north-central portions of the state. However, no 
evidence of precip was noticed on sfc obs given the very dry
airmass in place. A few high resolution models are showing 
another quick moving batch of very light precip moving through the
northwest flow over the CWA. Have kept POPS less than 15 percent 
with no mention of precip given low level dry air in place and 
lack of any obvious lift.

The surface ridge will continue southward tonight as another ridge 
moves out of Canada. In the meantime, lee cyclogenesis will occur
in the Colorado Front Range tomorrow in response to an upper wave
moving across the Rockies. Southerly flow will set up over the 
CWA allowing for low level WAA to commence. As a result, 
temperatures should be noticeably warmer tomorrow afternoon with 
highs forecast to reach the upper 40s to near 50 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 321 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2019

In the long-term, conditions stay fairly settled until a more active 
pattern sets up during the weekend/early next week.

On Thursday, the surface low over CO will sweep northeast across 
western and northern KS with no impactful weather expected to occur 
here. Temperatures continue to moderate with highs in the low 50s 
for much of the area Thursday and mid 50s on Friday. A cold front 
is then expected to move through the area Friday night followed 
by the arrival of a much cooler airmass. The EC model is hinting 
at precip occurring behind the front in an area of weak ascent on 
Saturday. The going forecast is currently dry, but we will monitor
trends for the possibility of introducing POPS on Saturday. 
Attention then turns to a system brewing over the western CONUS on
Sunday. At this range, there is not good agreement between models
regarding chances and timing of potential precipitation. As of 
right now, models show a surface low working across TX on Monday, 
which would place northeast KS too far north for the most 
favorable area of decent snowfall. Confidence in details should 
begin to increase as we move closer so stay tuned for updates to 
the forecast. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 512 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2019

Water vapor imagery suggests the subtle upper trough axis is
beginning to move east of the forecast area. This along with
models showing mid level frontogenesis weakening and a relatively
dry low level airmass still in place should allow VFR conditions
to prevail. There remains the possibility for some LLWS overnight
due to a strengthening low level jet after the boundary layer has
decoupled. 

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Teefey
LONG TERM...Teefey
AVIATION...Wolters