806 FXUS63 KTOP 092124 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 324 PM CST Mon Dec 9 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 324 PM CST Mon Dec 9 2019 This afternoon the mid level trough that moved across eastern Kansas this morning was moving off into the mid mississippi valley at 21Z. Surface high pressure was located over north central Nebraska into southwest Kansas. Gusty winds this afternoon will continue to decrease as we approach sunset and then become light this evening. The surface high will continue to build south into central and eastern Kansas this evening with light return flow setting up after midnight. THe next boundary will slide quickly southeast as energy in British Columbia this afternoon drop southeast across the Plains on Tuesday. This will bring an increase in clouds to the northern counties Tuesday afternoon and there could be a few flurries in north central Kansas as well as the energy moves through the upper trough. There is some weak frontogenesis in the 850mb to 700mb layer in the early afternoon mainly across south central Nebraska. Soundings in Kansas show fairly dry air below 800 mb, still would not be surprised to see a few flakes in north central Kansas. Lows tonight will drop into the teens overnight, with highs on Tuesday in the 30s to around 40. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 324 PM CST Mon Dec 9 2019 The large trough over the eastern US will continue to shift farther east by Wednesday, allowing ridging to move in over the Plains. Along the western flank of the upper trough, a strong surface high will move east of the area. This will promote a moderating trend in temperatures through Thursday, as southerly winds on the west side of the surface high advect warmer air into the area. Highs Thursday and Friday should rebound into the lower 50s across much of northeast Kansas. A weak area of lower pressure may pass through on Thursday, but with little moisture no precipitation is expected. The weekend turns more unsettled as a series of shortwaves carves out another broad trough over the central US. An initial system Friday night may bring a slight chance of rain or snow to northern portions of the region, but more importantly, will bring in a shot of cold dry air. A second system will move onto the Plains on Sunday. This far out, details are quite uncertain. While the presence of the initial cold air does increase the possibility of wintry precipitation on Sunday, the exact track of the system will determine who sees precipitation and whether that precipitation is rain or snow. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 1134 AM CST Mon Dec 9 2019 Gusty winds to between 30 and 35 kts will continue to be possible at times until around 23/00Z. Light winds with a shift to the southwest will occur tonight, before directions shift back to the north tomorrow morning. Otherwise, clear skies are expected through much of the period, so VFR conditions are forecast. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...53 LONG TERM...Reese AVIATION...Teefey