555 FXUS62 KFFC 081840 AAA AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 140 PM EST Sun Dec 8 2019 .UPDATE... Going forecast still looks good. Measurable rain moving into western counties should hold off a little later into the evening than previously thought. Temps and dewpoints a degree or so lower than forecast today. Still appears no chance for thunderstorms and only light rain expected thru Mon night. SNELSON && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 641 AM EST Sun Dec 8 2019/ SHORT TERM /Today through Monday/... Surface analysis shows high pressure already building down the Appalachians, building a wedge in portions of northern and eastern Georgia. Mainly will see increased cloud cover today with mostly dry weather expected through the day today. Chances for showers will be increasing late this evening as a weak shortwave moves east through the area and moisture is lifted over the wedge. Have included chance pops across mainly northern Georgia for late this evening into the overnight hours with likely pops in the mountains. As upglide over the wedge continues into early Monday, chances for rain will continue with the best chances across the northeast mountains. The wedge looks to break down by Monday evening as the next frontal system begins to approach the area. Overall, with the wedge in place high temperatures this afternoon will be in the 40s and 50s in northern Georgia with temps in the 60s across central Georgia. Overnight lows are expected to be in the 40s and 50s, around 10 to 15 degrees above average. Highs on Monday are expected to be warm as well, around 5 to 10 degrees above average, in the 60s and 70s. Reaves LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/... Fcst period starts with rather slow progression of a broad longwave trough and an attendant sfc cold front bringing widespread shower/rain chances to the area from the NW for Monday night through Tuesday night. Post frontal temps for late Tuesday into early Wednesday have trended slightly warmer. Still cannot rule out some brief rain to snow transition in parts of the far north but not expecting much impact based on this setup and trends. Models solutions continue to diverge in how much trough energy and enhanced moisture axis pushes east for Wednesday as the GFS continues to develop a rather amplified upper shortwave on the heals of the aforementioned fropa that stems from the base of the longwave energy, and the Euro maintains a dryer and less active period. Opted to keep a consistency fcst with not buying into the wetter GFS quite yet and kept pops confined farther south. Next period of interest and also with some model discrepancies is Thursday night into Friday as overrunning moisture ahead of a developing Gulf low could interact against a strong CAD wedge. Some temps Friday morning are a bit warmer than before. Still keeping some mention of possible light rain/snow mix in the far northeast, but temps and possible wedge influence will need to be monitored closely if any cooler trends occur that could lead to different p-type concerns. Otherwise maintained general chance pops for showers Friday into the weekend with expected amplified upper trough west of the region. Baker && .AVIATION... 18Z Update... VFR conditions expected thru 03-06Z Mon when cigs drop to MVFR then IFR around 10-12Z and LIFR 14-15Z. Rain will not be heavy but will likely transition to drizzle around 14-15Z with vsbys also going down to 3-5SM. Some improvement in conditions expected after 17Z. Sfc winds will remain E to SE 8-12kts with gusts to 20kts then switch to SSW after 17-18Z Mon. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... Low-Medium on IFR/LIFR onset and dissipation timing Medium on wind shift timing. Medium-high on all other elements. SNELSON && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 54 45 62 58 / 5 40 40 30 Atlanta 54 48 65 60 / 5 40 40 50 Blairsville 49 41 57 55 / 10 50 50 70 Cartersville 55 47 65 58 / 5 40 40 60 Columbus 62 52 72 60 / 5 40 40 30 Gainesville 51 45 59 55 / 5 50 50 50 Macon 60 49 71 60 / 5 20 30 30 Rome 56 47 66 59 / 5 40 40 70 Peachtree City 57 48 67 59 / 5 40 40 40 Vidalia 64 51 76 62 / 0 10 10 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SNELSON LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...SNELSON