391 FXUS63 KMPX 070509 AAB AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1109 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 244 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019 Surface analysis this afternoon shows a 1032mb high pressure area centered over much of Minnesota southwest through the TX/OK Panhandle region. A warm front is draped over eastern MT into the western Dakotas, slowly pressing eastward. Aloft, solid NW flow aloft prevails between a large ridge over the Rockies and a trough over the Appalachians. Over the next 36 hours, the aforementioned ridge out west will slowly approach from the west but also collapse, transitioning to a more zonal flow. Along with this change in upper level pattern, the warm front will be led eastward with this ridge. This will help maintain cloud cover across the region tonight through tomorrow across MN/WI. A slight increase in moisture is noted across multiple models with the progression of the warm front atop the ridge axis, suggesting the potential for flurries or freezing drizzle along the leading edge of the warm front. With the warm front being more pronounced over northern MN/WI than into southern MN, precipitation is not expected for the vast majority of may area. The main exception may be a handful of counties in central MN into western WI with the progression of the warm front. While nothing may be measured, some flurries may in fact develop so have added its mention for a small portion of the WFO MPX coverage area bordering the DLH and ARX areas during the pre-dawn hours. Going into the rest of Saturday and Saturday night, some of the cloud cover will diminish in coverage, making for a mix of sun and clouds over southern MN tomorrow while central MN into western WI remains mostly cloudy. Still no precipitation expected going into Saturday night with the warm front eroding away and in advance of a more potent cold front. Temperatures will take a noticeable jump for tomorrow with the passage of the decaying warm front. In fact, high temperatures tomorrow will be awfully similar to what was recorded yesterday, into the mid-to-upper 30s. As such, there will be a stark difference between lows tonight and lows coming Saturday night. While lows tonight drop into the teens area-wide with light winds, the warm air advection for tomorrow and tomorrow night will keep lows in the 20s to lower 30s. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 244 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019 The most immediate threat in the longer term forecast is obviously the clipper system moving in the latter half of Sunday into Monday. Compared to the last 36 hours of model runs, the trend has been slightly drier with early Monday morning still holding the best potential for periods of heavier snow, which could impact the morning commuter period. Right now, it appears likely to see at least an inch or two of snow across our area which will be a nuisance for travel Monday morning, high end looks to be four to six inches. Clipper systems such as this tend to be overdone by models early on, so inclined to believe the slight downward trend in snow amounts. After this system departs, we cool down significantly with temperatures falling into the negatives Tuesday morning across the entire state as arctic air surges into the area. We struggle to reach the mid single digits above zero Tuesday afternoon as temperatures plummet to near record low values Wednesday morning with negative mid teens in the cities and as cold as negative twenties farther north. Record low high temperatures are also possible as all but southern Minnesota looks to remain in the negatives Wednesday afternoon. The main things that could trend us away from records is either an increase in wind or cloud cover, with both showing some uncertainty within model forecasts five days out. Either way, it will be our first major arctic plunge of the season and only slightly behind pace for first negative temperatures of the season. The good news is that we look to moderate back into the teens and twenties to end the week, with another round of light snow possible Thursday into Friday. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1109 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019 VFR cigs will prevail through the period, except at AXN for the next few hours. KMSP...No concerns through Saturday. Wind shear is possible Saturday night as winds aloft increase. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Sun...VFR/MVFR. IFR/SN Sun night. Wind SW 10kts bcmg N late. Mon...IFR/SN likely, mainly in the morning. Several inches possible. Wind NNE bcmg NNW 10-15G25 kts. Tue...VFR. Wind NW 5-15 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JPC LONG TERM...TDH AVIATION...BORGHOFF