481 
FXUS64 KLUB 070442
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1042 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019

.AVIATION...
VFR is expected for the next 24 hours.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...
Winds have started to decrease from this morning as the surface high 
has creeped into the region. Winds will turn back to the south to 
southeast later tonight as the surface high pushes eastward and will 
help to keep overnight lows mostly above freezing. A surface lee 
trough is still expected to form tomorrow morning allowing for 
another breezy but otherwise pleasant day as highs stay in the low 
60s. The lee trough will stay put through Sunday ahead of an 
advancing cold front. Winds will start off Sunday out of the west 
but transition to the north by Monday morning. During this time a 
positively tilted shortwave will move across southern CA/northern 
Mexico and push eastward with the axis of the trough moving across 
the FA Tuesday. Models have come in drier than previous runs keeping 
most precip south of the FA under the area of best upper diffluence. 
If precip does occur it is expected to remain mostly liquid across 
the Rolling Plains with a Rain/Snow mix possible on the Caprock. The 
trough will be east of the FA by early Wednesday with northwesterly 
flow aloft giving way to mostly zonal flow by Thursday. Models 
continue to trend with having an upper low develop in the main flow 
disrupting the zonal pattern and move it quickly across TX. 
Models also continue to keep this system dry with mainly gusty 
conditions possible.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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