574 FXUS64 KBMX 062355 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 555 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019 .UPDATE... For 00Z Aviation. && .SHORT TERM... /Updated at 0337 PM CST Fri Dec 06 2019/ Through Tonight. An upper level short wave that resulted in a weak MCV moved across Central Alabama today. With it, rain and a few embedded thunderstorms moved west to east, and are now exiting southeastern portions of the forecast area. Will leave a low chance of light rain in the southeast this evening, as a few light showers are possible. Low clouds will rotate back into the area (already seeing this across the northwest) this evening. Cannot rule out a few spots of drizzle but not confident enough to include in the forecast overnight. With the cloud cover, temperatures will remain in the low 40s to low 50s tonight. 14 .LONG TERM... /Updated at 0337 PM CST Fri Dec 06 2019/ Made a few updates/tweaks to the extended forecast. Model guidance has now trended drier Saturday, and removed rain chances. The inverted trough does remain across the area, and could be the focus for showers on Sunday. Additionally made a few changes for model trends mid week to reflect model timing. 14 Previous Long Term Discussion... /Updated at 0402 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2019/ Saturday through Thursday An inverted surface trough will extend northward into Alabama on Saturday as a wedge of high pressure strengthens to our northeast. Low-level isentropic lift should lead to widespread clouds and perhaps some light showers. Measurable rainfall appears unlikely in most locations, but a 20 percent chance has been included for areas south of Interstate 20. This setup will continue into Saturday night and Sunday with 20 percent rain chances expanding to cover the remainder of our forecast area. A large-scale trough is set to take shape across the Plains and eastern CONUS for Monday through Wednesday. Increasing southwesterly low-level flow will provide plenty of moisture for both pre-frontal and post-frontal showers as a front moves slowly moves through the region. Rain chances will increase from northwest to southeast across our area beginning Monday afternoon and should be widespread overnight into Tuesday morning. As the front advances beyond our forecast area, rain should end Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Colder and dry conditions will move in behind the front for Wednesday and Thursday. 87/Grantham && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF Discussion. /Cloudiness through the period with reduced ceilings taking shape tonight into Saturday morning/ At 23:50Z/5:50PM, the GOES-East nighttime micro channel showed a comma head of low clouds atop the region. Related observations show ceilings vary in the MVFR-VFR range for Central Alabama terminals, but a trend toward more consistent MVFR is expected this evening. Overnight and into early-mid Saturday morning, some terminals have the potential to fall into IFR range. Forecast soundings indicate a return of mixed MVFR-VFR ceilings heading through Saturday afternoon. Winds will be very light to calm tonight, becoming NE/ENE around 5 knots Saturday afternoon. There may be a spotty sprinkle or light rain shower on Saturday. 89^GSatterwhite && .FIRE WEATHER... A few light showers remain possible across the southeast this evening, otherwise dry conditions are expected tonight. Low clouds will spread back across the area, with ceiling heights below 1500ft possible. Cloudy conditions continue on Saturday, with a slight chance of light rain showers again on Sunday. More widespread rainfall is expected Monday night into Tuesday. There are no fire weather concerns at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 43 58 47 56 49 / 10 0 10 20 40 Anniston 45 58 47 55 50 / 10 10 10 20 50 Birmingham 46 59 49 57 52 / 10 10 10 20 40 Tuscaloosa 47 60 50 60 54 / 10 10 10 20 20 Calera 46 59 49 57 52 / 10 10 10 20 30 Auburn 48 58 49 55 51 / 10 10 10 20 40 Montgomery 49 60 51 62 55 / 10 10 10 20 30 Troy 50 59 52 62 56 / 10 10 10 20 30 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/... None. && $$